They support Trump

US experts fear violent militias

Street fight in Portland in 2021: A "Proud Boy" beats a man.

(Bild: AFP/Nathan Howard/Getty Images)

After the bitter experience of the 2020 US presidential election, there are concerns that the weeks after November 5 may not be free of violence. Three violent militias in particular are causing political observers to tremble ...

US President Joe Biden recently said that the election would be fair - but that he did not know "whether it would be peaceful". At the same time, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is continuing to inflame the political climate with statements about the "enemy within" and alleged fraudulent intentions.

Violent militias caused chaos
The US constitution allows the formation of non-state, armed units. The Oath Keepers, the Proud Boys and the Three Percenters are among the largest militias on the far-right spectrum. What they all have in common is an anti-state ideology and a willingness to use armed force to pursue political goals.

The Oath Keepers recruit former or current police officers and soldiers and defend themselves against alleged tyranny by the US government. Founded in 2009, the group is the largest in the militia movement, but the figure of 35,000 members sometimes quoted is considered exaggerated. There are many Trump sympathizers in the ranks of the militia. Its founder Stewart Rhodes was sentenced to 18 years in prison for his involvement in the Capitol storming.

Stewart Rhodes is currently in prison.

(Bild: AFP/COLLIN COUNTY)

The Proud Boys are a neo-fascist group founded in 2016 that glorifies political violence against left-wing politicians and activists. They see white men in western states threatened with extinction, and they also support Trump. Estimates of the number of members vary between several hundred and several thousand.

The group became known for Trump's 2020 slogan "Proud boys, stand back and stand by". Several members were convicted for storming the Capitol, including their leader Enrique Tarrio, who was sentenced to 22 years in prison.

Pure racists: members of the Proud Boys show the hand sign for "White Power".

(Bild: AFP/Patrick T. FALLON)

The Three Percenters, founded in 2008, also recruit former or current soldiers and are committed to armed resistance against the federal government. Their leader Barry Croft was involved in the foiled plans to kidnap Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer. Several members of the group were charged with the capitol storming, in one case receiving a prison sentence of more than seven years.

Convictions had an impact
The non-governmental organization ACLED, which specializes in researching political violence, recorded a decline in the mobilization of right-wing extremist groups and the lowest since 2020 for 2024. The experts attribute this to the imprisonment and conviction of numerous members. For example, the Oath Keepers and the Three Percenters have "lost most of their ability to mobilize members on the streets". The Proud Boys are also less active than in 2020.

However, this does not mean "that the risk of political violence in 2024 is low". The experts believe a scenario is likely in which angry Trump supporters take to the streets after a very close and controversial election result - and then militia members spontaneously join in to fuel the protests.

In the event of Trump losing the election, violence researcher and physician Garen Wintemute from the University Hospital in Sacramento does not rule out an outbreak of violence like in 2021. "If Trump loses the election, right-wing organizations could use violence to try to get him into the White House anyway," says Wintemute.

Authorities better prepared than in 2021
However, the security authorities are better prepared for such a scenario this time. It is also pointed out that, unlike when he was voted out of office four years ago, Trump is not the incumbent president this time.

Trump describes the criminals from 6 January 2021 as unjustly imprisoned "hostages" and has announced that he will pardon them on "day one" in office. As US president, he could also invoke the Insurrection Act of 1807, which allows him to use the National Guard or even the military to combat domestic uprisings.

Right-wing extremists against "left-wing lunatics"?
Trump was aiming at this possibility when he recently spoke of the state having to deal with "radical left-wing nuts", "if necessary through the National Guard or, if really necessary, through the military".

Violence researcher Wintemute does not rule out the possibility that "the Proud Boys and other right-wing extremists will then become part of this law enforcement capacity" - for example by turning militiamen pardoned by Trump into marshals whose job it is to arrest suspects.