Virus combination

Expert: “New, severe epidemic” on the horizon

(Bild: ©BillionPhotos.com - stock.adobe.com)

Innsbruck infectiologist and Director of the University Clinic for Internal Medicine, Günter Weiss, expects a global epidemic in the medium term, triggered by a "human influenza virus" in combination with a bird flu virus. "This could result in a new, severe epidemic or a new virus with pandemic potential," said Weiss.

However, this does not necessarily mean similar effects as with corona. After all, the swine flu pandemic was also "relatively mild", explained the renowned expert, who emphasized that he "by no means wanted to spread panic" or be alarmist. He did not do this during the coronavirus pandemic, Weiss reminded us: "But we need to know what could happen so that we can be prepared in the event of an emergency."

The cold season is approaching - the expert warns us to prepare for an imminent epidemic.

(Bild: EXPA/ PIXSELL/ Josip Regovic)

Expert: "The virus is constantly changing"
The influenza virus is "capable of affecting several different species - birds, pigs, humans", the top doctor explained. "The virus is constantly changing. It is possible that a new virus will emerge that contains components of different influenza viruses from different animal species, is infectious to humans and is not recognized by the immune system. This could trigger a new severe epidemic or a new virus with pandemic potential," said Weiss.

"I assume that something like this will happen in the foreseeable future," said the infectiologist. This is because there have been more viral interactions and "leapfrogging of the virus" between humans and animals in recent years and months.

The H5N1 bird flu virus

(Bild: AFP/CDC und NIAID)

Bird flu: 50 percent of infections are fatal
With regard to bird flu, a "type of influenza", Weiss spoke of a "silent pandemic" that is circulating specifically in Europe and "primarily affects birds". Millions of birds are affected and many will die. "Individual" or "a few hundred cases" also occurred in humans who had "close contact" with the animals. Around 50 percent of these cases were fatal. Direct human-to-human transmission has not yet occurred.

However, Weiss referred to four cases of farmers in the USA who, although not seriously ill, were affected. The starting point was that the bird flu virus had been transmitted to cows and the infections were passed on through direct contact, but also through milk. "This shows the potential for the virus to change," the physician returned to the starting point of his assumption and prognosis.

Expert calls for "fact-based discussion"
An epidemic of this kind does not necessarily have to have the same consequences for society as the coronavirus. And that's if you don't "put your rational mind aside". Instead of school closures, there should be an "objective, fact-based discussion" and "not always the search for culprits" as in Germany.

In any case, one thing is generally clear: Europe, and therefore Austria, is increasingly becoming a "playground" for a wide range of infectious diseases that did not exist in this form in the past. Globalization, worldwide mobility, travel to the most remote areas, the restriction of animal habitats in rainforests and tropical regions, the associated increased interaction, as well as global warming and climate change, would also spread new pathogens and forms of transmission to us, Weiss emphasized.

More infectious diseases are also on the horizon in summer
"There are more disease patterns. More infections. The spectrum is broader," emphasized the infectiologist. In summer, we will see more infectious diseases, ticks and mosquitoes will move further and further north due to the higher temperatures and could transmit a wide variety of old and new pathogens over longer periods of time.