Protection has been increased

Lies and violence: USA expects new election chaos

Trump supporters tried to prevent the ratification of the US election in 2021.

(Bild: AP ( via APA) Austria Presse Agentur/John Minchillo)

Many Americans are still reeling from the escalation of violence in the last US election. The close duel between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is fueling fears of new riots. Several factors are contributing to this.

Following the dramatic events surrounding the 2020 election, there are also concerns that this year's US presidential election could lead to the fiercest clashes over the result after November 5 - in court or on the streets.

As he did four years ago, the right-wing populist presidential candidate Donald Trump is constantly spreading the conspiracy lie that he can only lose the election if the other side cheats massively. During the election campaign, he repeatedly refused to say that he would accept an election defeat and then a peaceful transition to the next term of office.

The White House as protection from justice
He continues to claim, against all available evidence, that he was cheated out of victory in his 2020 defeat to Joe Biden. He has been charged with conspiracy against the United States for his attempts to manipulate the outcome of the election.

"If he loses, I'm sure he'll be screaming fraud," says political scientist Donald Nieman from Binghampton University. "He will do everything in his power to reverse the result. He's not just a sore loser - he never concedes defeat."

For Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris, 95 percent of her supporters believe she would accept defeat, according to an Oct. 10 Pew Research Center poll; only 48 percent of Trump voters share that view.

Metal barriers around the Capitol and the White House
Two out of three respondents fear new violence after November 5, according to an Ipsos poll from October 24. The political climate is heated and poisoned; after Trump insulted and defamed his rival for weeks during the election campaign, Harris is now calling the 78-year-old a fascist. 

The security services in Washington have been preparing intensively for the critical transition period from the election to swearing-in day on January 20. The Capitol Police, which was overrun by fanatical Trump supporters on January 6, 2021, has been increased by 300 to 2100 officers. Metal barriers have been erected around the White House and the Capitol, the seat of Congress.

The same high level of security is planned for January 6, 2025, when the result of the election is to be confirmed by Congress, as for the swearing-in ceremony on January 20.

The US Capitol is much better secured.

(Bild: AP ( via APA) Austria Presse Agentur/Jose Luis Magana)

The right-wing extremist militias active in the USA, which were involved in the storming of the Capitol four years ago, have not made much of an appearance recently. Hundreds of militiamen, including the leaders, have been brought to trial and some have been sentenced to long prison terms. Violence researchers assume that this has had a deterrent effect - but do not rule out the possibility of militiamen spontaneously resorting to violence.

A battle for justice looms
Four years ago, the presidential election took place on November 3 and the result was not known until four days later. Trump immediately claimed victory on election night and at the same time spread claims of electoral fraud on all channels.

The Democrats are anticipating a similar approach for this election. "We have the resources and the experience to respond," said Harris last week. Trump is not in office this time and does not have the power to use the federal authorities or the National Guard for his purposes. Back then, he pulled out all the stops to challenge the election result in the courts - in not a single case did he get justice.

This time, the Trump camp is better prepared: It has recruited an army of 100,000 volunteers and thousands of lawyers tasked with monitoring the "correctness" of the elections. Trump's team has already filed more than 130 complaints in 26 US states against the election process. The complaints range from voter registration and the organization of voting to the question of who is allowed to vote at all.

The Democratic opposition has filed around 35 complaints. The stage is set for a months-long legal battle and allegations of fraud of all kinds. The final instance for the legal disputes is the Supreme Court, which Trump has turned into a bastion of conservatives by nominating three judges in his first term of office.