Who promises what
The three most important issues in the US election campaign
Will a convicted felon move into the White House for the first time in the history of the United States of America? Or will the country be led by a woman for the first time? On November 5, around 200 million Americans who are eligible to vote will have made their decision between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. But in the end, it is possible that only a few of the 50 states will tip the balance. Of the many issues that were widely discussed during the election campaign, only three are actually considered to be decisive. krone.at analyzes which ones these are.
In all polls, the economy, migration, terrorism or national security and abortion are among the issues that most concern voters. According to a recent Gallup poll, 46% of respondents consider the economic situation in their country to be "bad", while 62% are extremely skeptical about the future and fear a "further deterioration". At 43%, the economy is considered the most important problem that should currently be solved by politicians (see chart below).
Under President Joe Biden, who has been in office since the beginning of 2021, inflation had risen to 9.1% by June 2022, the highest level in almost 40 years. This was mainly due to the coronavirus pandemic and the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine. Consumer prices have fallen significantly since then.
Nevertheless, many US citizens are still suffering from the consequences of the high inflation rates of recent years, as the rate of inflation has slowed, but prices are still at a high level. Extremely high prices for medicines are also a problem for many citizens: Together with Biden, Harris therefore announced a "historic" price reduction for ten medicines for the elderly months ago. The agreement with the drug manufacturers will save senior citizens 1.5 billion dollars (around 1.38 billion euros) in 2026 alone.
No Trump speech goes by without extensive criticism of Biden's economic policy, for which Harris is also partly responsible as Vice President. Inflation is the key word here. This is the result of uncontrolled government spending, says Trump. The Republicans have hit a nerve with this. Behind all the dramatizing rhetoric, the two candidates have not so dissimilar approaches to easing the burden on the middle class. Tax cuts play an important role in this.
Harris wants to increase corporate and capital gains taxes as well as income tax for high earners from 400,000 dollars (around 366,000 euros) a year. She wants to help families by increasing tax allowances for children. She also wants to help people buying their first home with a tax deduction of 25,000 dollars (around 23,000 euros). Her Republican challenger, on the other hand, wants to make loans to buy a car tax-deductible and reduce corporate taxes. Both candidates have also announced a tax exemption for tips, targeting the strong service sector in the swing state of Nevada with its gambling metropolis Las Vegas.
The Vice President also plans to increase the minimum wage from 7.25 to 15 dollars per hour (from around 6.70 euros to around 14 euros). She has also proposed a ban on food price hikes in order to prevent spikes similar to those caused by the pandemic. Trump has announced a reduction in regulations, for example in the antitrust and banking sectors, and is also questioning the political independence of the US Federal Reserve.
Trump wants to make government spending more efficient with Musk's help
The tax giveaways would of course drive the national debt even higher. The total debt of the USA currently amounts to almost 100 percent of economic output (GDP). According to the conservative Washington think tank Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, the mostly unfinanced tax cuts under Trump would increase the debt by 7,500 billion dollars (around 6,900 billion euros) and under Harris by 3,500 billion dollars (around 3,200 billion euros). However, Trump wants to have government spending reviewed for efficiency and significantly reduced. A commission led by tech billionaire Elon Musk is to ensure that taxpayers' money is spent "in a good way".
Tariff club against China
The most serious differences between the two candidates in terms of content can be seen in trade policy. While Harris wants to take a cautious approach to trade barriers, Trump wants to protect the domestic economy through massive tariff increases. For example, a tariff of ten to 20 percent is to be imposed on all imports, and even 60 percent on imports from China. Incidentally, more respondents in surveys believe that businessman Trump will improve the economic situation in the USA.
Both candidates want to tighten asylum rules
The reform of migration legislation is another key issue in the election campaign. The situation at the southern US border remains tense, with authorities overburdened in many places. Biden recently tightened the asylum rules for migrants entering illegally from Mexico. The number of unauthorized border crossings fell - albeit from a record level. Both candidates are in favor of a tougher fight against illegal migration. Harris has her sights set primarily on smugglers and refers to her professional experience in this area as a public prosecutor. Trump has promised a mass deportation of millions of illegal migrants. "Liberation Day begins on November 5," the right-wing populist repeatedly trumpets to his supporters. However, this undertaking also appears questionable due to the lack of corresponding readmission agreements with the countries of origin.
Will the law from 1798 be reactivated?
In the fight against criminal foreign gangs, Trump promises to reactivate the so-called Alien Enemies Act of 1798, which was last used against Japanese immigrants in the USA during the Second World War. It allows the US President to deport or arrest "alien enemies" in times of war or invasion or threat of invasion. The 78-year-old wants to use the local police and the National Guard for this purpose. His vice-presidential candidate JD Vance told the New York Times in October that it was realistic to deport one million migrants a year.
Trump is calling for the death penalty for any migrant who kills a US citizen or law enforcement officer. He also wants to abolish all so-called sanctuary cities in the USA. The sanctuary movement emerged in the 1980s with the wave of refugees from civil war regions in Latin America. In addition to cities and municipalities, churches and other groups have also taken up the cause of helping illegal immigrants, even if this conflicts with the regulations of the federal authorities. The main issue here is the failure to verify a valid residency permit or, if arrested, to provide information to federal authorities related to immigration status.
As Vice President, Harris has the problem of having supported the now much-criticized immigration laws of the Biden administration for four years. During the election campaign, she repeatedly tried to distance herself from this. Her slogan is: "Finding a path to citizenship and protecting the borders." However, she remained very vague on many issues - including the detention of families who entered the country illegally and their separation. It is therefore not surprising that voters trust her challenger to bring about more change.
Republican spectre of "post-birth abortion"
Never before has abortion played such a major role in the US presidential election campaign as this time. This is because it is the first ballot since the Supreme Court overturned the federal right to abortion two years ago. Vice President Harris has made the issue one of the most important in her campaign and launched a "tour for reproductive freedom". Naturally, the Democrats are targeting many young women who are demanding this very private "freedom of choice" for their own bodies. The word "abortion" is often bandied about, while the Trump campaign even falsely claims that a US administration under a possible President Harris would allow "abortion up to birth - and possibly even after" - at the federal level.
However, this is factually incorrect. In reality, "after birth" abortion does not occur, as it would be classified as murder under all state laws. While later-term abortions do occur, they are extremely rare and are performed for a variety of reasons, such as health or mortality risks to the pregnant woman, diagnosis of fetal malformation or genetic abnormalities.
Only nine of the 50 states and the District of Columbia do not specify time limits in their abortion laws, and of those, only four states - Maryland, New Mexico, Oregon and Colorado - and the District of Columbia have clinics that openly say they will accept patients after 28 weeks of pregnancy.
The Republican candidate does not have much credibility here. He owes this above all to his zigzag course. In the spring, Trump initially flirted with the idea of a nationwide 15-week time limit regulation. In April, he then declared that he would prefer to leave responsibility for access to abortions with the individual states. This has been the case again since 2022, when the US Supreme Court ruled that no fundamental right to abortion could be derived from the constitution.
Trump is also causing irritation with his changing positions on the abortion pill. After initially wanting to enforce a national ban on the mailing of such preparations, he now no longer supports this. He has also recently become a supporter of artificial insemination: as president, he would ensure that either the state would cover the costs of such treatment if necessary - or insurance companies. It is clear from these maneuvers that the ex-president wants to keep the strict opponents of abortion in line, as well as more liberal Republicans.
The USA and abortion
Overall, attitudes towards abortion in the USA have remained relatively stable since the 1990s. The percentage of Americans who said they wanted to legalize abortion in all or most cases is almost identical today (63 percent) to the percentage who said so in 1995 (60 percent), according to Pew Research Center polls.
In contrast to Trump's vacillation, Harris has taken a consistent line on the abortion issue for decades. She fought militant anti-abortion groups as a prosecutor. As a senator and later as vice president, she supported several laws that made abortion more accessible. Incidentally, on the day of the presidential election, ten states will also be voting on changes to abortion law. This will provide additional mobilization of voters. What this means for the White House will become clear on November 5.
The closer the race, the sharper the tones
The close race can also be seen in the increasingly strident tones - including from the ranks of the Democrats. Trump recently ranted about a "stupid and crazy" vice president, while the latter called the Republican a "fascist". The incumbent Biden has also come out swinging recently. While one might still think that Biden's sentence "Lock up Trump" may have just slipped out, the statement that Trump supporters are "garbage" was probably well thought out in response to the really tasteless joke by cabaret artist Tony Hinchcliffe at Trump's election rally in New York's Madison Square Garden, according to which Puerto Rico is an "island of garbage". Even if the White House very quickly backtracked and said that the president had only meant "this one supporter".
However, scandals like this are precisely the "proof" for the other side that the worst fears would materialize in the event of an election defeat. In the end, it is not just the plans of the two presidential candidates that will be decisive, but also the fears and emotions that have been stirred up. When it comes to the question of whether the Democrat or the Republican is more likeable, Trump comes out on the short end of the stick. This is because the 78-year-old has a negative balance of the two values "preferred" and "not preferred", while Harris is rated just positively.
This article has been automatically translated,
read the original article here.
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