What happens if ...

Election super-GAU would play into Trump’s hands

A draw would play into the hands of the Trump camp.

(Bild: AFP/Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

What happens if no candidate in the US election achieves the 270 electoral votes needed to win? Then a 220-year-old constitutional amendment comes into play, which is tantamount to an electoral super-GAU ...

America is like a powder keg. All the polls point to a very close result between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. And regardless of who ultimately comes out on top in the race for the White House, the losers' camp is unlikely to simply accept the result. Many fear that there could be violent clashes.

Especially if the election super-GAU occurs - namely if Harris and Trump end up with the same number of electoral votes (269). Then Congress will decide who becomes president and vice president, something that has not happened for exactly 200 years.

Why a tie helps Trump
There are several scenarios that make a tie possible. The most likely is that Trump wins North Carolina, Michigan and Pennsylvania, while Harris secures Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Wisconsin. If the current forecasts in the remaining states prove to be correct, neither candidate would actually exceed the 270-vote mark and thus the threshold for the presidency.

In this case, the 12th Amendment to the Constitution would apply. This states that the US House of Representatives elects the President and the US Senate elects the Vice President by a simple majority.

This is more complicated than it seems. This is because not every member of parliament gets a vote, but each of the 50 federal states represented must decide on a candidate. To make it clearer: The state of Florida has 27 representatives in the US House of Representatives, of which 14 are Republicans and 13 are Democrats. Which would effectively mean that the Republicans can push through their preferred candidate with a simple majority. With conservatives holding the majority of seats in 26 states, Trump would almost certainly be the next President of the United States.

In the Senate, each senator has one vote to determine the vice president. However, in this case it is the composition of the next Senate that is also determined by the current election. And according to all forecasts, the Democrats will lose their narrow majority. This would mean that the Vice President would also be a Republican - i.e. JD Vance.

The last time the House of Representatives elected the president was in 1824 on the basis of the constitutional amendment passed in 1804. At that time, the majority of delegations voted for John Quincy Adams, with rival Andrew Jackson losing out. Should the same procedure occur two centuries later, the loser will not simply accept it.

In all probability, the Supreme Constitutional Court will ultimately have to confirm the election. You don't have to be a prophet to imagine the negative impact this government crisis will have on the deeply divided country.