Close race

When the winner of the US election could be decided

The 2024 US election will be a tight race.

(Bild: AFP/2024 Getty Images)

In 2008, the US election was particularly quick: Republican John McCain conceded defeat to Democrat Barack Obama at 11.19 p.m. local time (5.19 a.m. CET). Obama's re-election in 2012 took until after midnight, while Donald Trump's surprise victory in 2016 was only announced at 2.29 am.

Four years ago, it took a full five days before Joe Biden's victory was confirmed due to a hangover in the swing state of Pennsylvania. In Pennsylvania, postal votes were counted for days after the polls closed on Tuesday.

Decision probably not on election night
In this respect, there could be a dacapo this year, as the 19 electoral votes of the East Coast state also play a decisive role in the duel between US Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump, along with six other contested states: North Carolina (16), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10) and Nevada (6). Because the race is also very close there and postal votes are still being counted for days in some cases, the chances of a decision on election night are not so good.

The race between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris is shaping up to be close.

(Bild: Krone KREATIV/AFP/Saul Loeb)

• 0:00 CET - Here we go: The first polling stations close in the states of Kentucky (8) and Indiana (11). However, there are no predictions yet because voting is still taking place in some regions.
• 1:00 a.m. - After polls close in six states, Trump and Harris will get their first electoral votes fairly quickly. Indiana (11 electoral votes), Kentucky (8) and South Carolina (9) are considered Republican strongholds, while Vermont (3) and Virginia (13) are Democratic. But Georgia (16) is also the first swing state to be included. Biden narrowly won this four years ago as the first Democrat in three decades. Especially in the case of a close outcome, however, it will probably take days before there is a reliable result from the southern state. Expected interim result: 28 to 16 for Trump.
• 1.30 a.m. - Polls close in West Virginia (4), North Carolina (16) and Ohio (17). The four electors from deep red West Virginia will immediately go to Trump's account, and probably also those from Ohio (17). The race in North Carolina, on the other hand, is wide open, but no decision is expected on election night there either due to the absentee ballots. Ohio is a "must win" for Trump, who clearly prevailed against Hillary Clinton there four years ago. A close race or even a lead for Harris would be bad news for Trump and a bad omen for the outcome in the neighboring swing states of Michigan and Pennsylvania. Expected midterm score: 49 to 16 for Trump.

• 2:00 a.m. - Polls close in 14 states and the Capital District, including Florida (30) and the swing state of Pennsylvania (19). While absentee and early votes are being counted in the Sunshine State before Election Day and a forecast could be available soon, Pennsylvania is unlikely to have one. Trump and Harris will still be busy collecting electoral votes at 2.00 am because the other states are "safely" Democratic and Republican respectively. 
  
  Trump should be able to add the votes of Florida (30), Alabama (9), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Oklahoma (7), Tennessee (11) and the second electoral district in Maine (1) to his account, Harris those of Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), Illinois (19), Maine (3 of 4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (14), Rhode Island (4) and Washington D.C. (3). Expected midterm score: 123 to 94 for Trump.
• 2:30 a.m. - Polls close in deep red Arkansas (6). It is the earliest possible time to declare victory because the now closed states account for 274 of the 538 electoral votes. In reality, however, both candidates will be far from the magic number of 270. Expected interim result: 129 to 94 for Trump.
• 3.00 am - Polls close again in 15 states, including the swing states of Michigan (15) and Wisconsin (10), which switched from Democrat to Republican and back again between 2016 and 2020, and Arizona (11), which was narrowly won by Biden four years ago. There, too, it is likely to depend on the postal votes, which will be counted by the end of the week. In the final spurt of the election campaign, another supposed swing state suddenly emerged due to a poll, the previously deep red Iowa (6). The survey by the highly respected Selzer Institute showed Harris surprisingly ahead there with 47 to 44 percent. 
  
  However, as postal votes are still being counted there for days, a reliable result seems questionable. The Democrat will almost certainly be able to collect a further 54 votes by the midpoint of election night, namely in Colorado (10), Minnesota (10), New Mexico (5), New York (28) and the second congressional district of Nebraska (1). Trump, on the other hand, can count 67 votes from Texas (40), Louisiana (8), Kansas (6), Nebraska (4 out of 5), North Dakota (3), South Dakota (3) and Wyoming (3). Expected midterm score: 196 to 148 for Trump.

• 4:00 p.m. - Polls close in three states, but they are counting rather slowly. Utah (6) and Montana (4) are a bank for Trump. Nevada (6), on the other hand, is one of the swing states. Expected midterm score: 206 to 148 for Trump.
• 5:00 - A boost for Harris comes with the polls closing in California (54), Washington (12) and Oregon (8). The three states are among the largest Democratic strongholds in the US. Trump will also clearly win the state of Idaho (4). The Democrat is likely to come out on top for the first time on election night. Expected midterm score: 222 to 210 for Harris.
• 6.00/7.00 - With Hawaii (4) and Alaska (3) the polls close in the last US states. Hawaii will certainly go to Harris, Alaska most likely to Trump. But even in the latter, the result could be a long time coming, as postal votes are not counted until November 10. However, it is considered unlikely that the result of the presidential election will depend on one of these two states. Expected interim result without a result from one of the seven swing states: 226 to 210 for Harris.