Head-to-head my ass
This is why Donald Trump won so clearly
In the run-up to the election, many experts believed that his sexist and sometimes racist comments could put Donald Trump at a disadvantage. But the opposite was the case. Our US correspondent Christian Thiele analyzes why this was the case and where the "shy Trump voter" came from.
With his victory against Kamala Harris, Trump made US history: he is only the second president to have a four-year break between terms in office. This puts him on a par with Democratic President Grover Cleveland, who was elected the 22nd president in 1884, lost to Benjamin Harrison in 1888 and then won again in 1892.
The race was considered too close to call to make a real prediction of victory, according to almost all polls in the run-up. Many experts believed that Trump's sexist and sometimes racist comments at campaign events in particular could put him at a disadvantage in the election. The opposite was the case. This is because the evaluations of the individual districts show that his die-hard supporters were even more motivated to vote for the Republican precisely because of such comments.
Scored well with Latino voters - despite the hate speech
Trump was able to improve on his 2020 results in almost all Republican strongholds in the swing states. According to voter surveys in the swing states on election day, he improved his share of Latino voters by 13 percentage points compared to the last election. This was despite his vicious rant against illegal immigrants, most of whom come from Latin America, calling them "rapists" and "murderers". In addition, an invited speaker at his campaign event in New York's Madison Square Garden described Puerto Rico as "garbage floating in the ocean".
This did not deter the twelve percent of eligible Americans with Latin American roots from voting for Trump. He even received a majority of Latino men (54%). The main reason: economic insecurity, which they blame on the Biden-Harris government.
Even fewer women's votes for Harris than for Biden in 2020
During the election campaign, Vice President Harris tried to use the issue of abortion rights and physical self-determination to drive up her share of female voters. In doing so, she wanted to compensate for her huge disadvantage against Trump among white men from the lower education classes in the swing states. Although Harris was able to attract more educated white women from the Gen Z generation to her side with her strategy, it made no difference to the overall picture. She received the votes of 54 percent of female voters overall, according to exit polls. Biden had received 57 percent four years ago.
Ultimately, Harris had tried to turn the election into a vote on Trump's character. She warned against his fascist tendencies and portrayed the ex-president with a criminal record as a threat to democracy. However, she was only able to score points with just over a quarter of voters. More than half of voters stated that they have been worse off since the end of Trump's first term in office due to high inflation. The dangers of illegal immigration conjured up by Trump also played a greater role than assumed.
28% of Americans don't care who wins
In the end, however, eight out of ten voters had already decided who they were voting for at the beginning of September. And surprisingly, in the politically divided United States, over a quarter of Americans did not care who won the White House at the end of the historic presidential election. In an Election Day poll by Talker Research, 28 percent of all adults (50 percent each Republican and Democrat) said they just wanted peace and quiet after months of campaign ads on TV, text message appeals for donations and daily excitement about new polls.
Apathy was particularly high among millennials. 35% just wanted the election to be over and normality to return.
The "shy Trump voter" is back
The last forecasts before the election still showed a neck-and-neck race between Trump and Harris. But the crucial question that no expert was able to answer by election night Was there, as in 2016 and 2020, the phenomenon of the "shy Trump voter" who either lied to pollsters or was underrepresented in surveys. The answer is yes. Because he made up ground in all swing states, contrary to the 2020 polls.
In contrast to Joe Biden, Harris lost votes - especially in the Democratic strongholds. Even fractions of a percent here and there make the difference in a close election. Even if it is not yet official, the New York Times was already clear on election night: there is an 87% probability that the next president will be Donald Trump.
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