"Krone" guest article

Trump is not as bad as everyone says

In Israel, Trump's victory was noted with favor.

(Bild: AP ( via APA) Austria Presse Agentur/Oded Balilty)

What does Donald Trump's victory mean for the world? The answer must first be prefaced with the observation that the Republican is neither as bad nor as good as many in the media make him out to be. A guest article by former US military officer Jeffrey H. Fischer.

The U.S. government has three branches: the president, Congress and the Supreme Court. Each branch has tools and abilities to check and balance the others. President Trump will not be able to go it alone here, even if the Republicans win both chambers.

Moreover, the Supreme Court will ensure that both Congress and the President enact laws that are consistent with the United States Constitution. Therefore, some of the fears that have portrayed Trump's presidency as authoritarian are unfounded.

National security
Donald Trump campaigned on a more isolationist platform during the election campaign. Overall, it is very likely that the Republican will withdraw from many US presences, but it is difficult to determine when and where.

Colonel (retired) Jeffrey Fischer, US Air Force, and author of the "Curt Nover" book series

(Bild: zVg)

Specifically, his campaign platform states, "Republicans will strengthen alliances by ensuring that our allies meet their commitments and invest in our common defense, and by restoring peace in Europe. We will stand with Israel and pursue peace in the Middle East. We will rebuild our network of alliances in the region to ensure a future of peace, stability and prosperity."

Israel
Trump is committed to continuing military support for Israel, which means that the ongoing conflict will receive a boost. Trump's support for Israel is also widely supported in the newly elected Congress, which makes US support for Israel very likely.

Ukraine
In contrast to Israel, there is cause for concern regarding Ukraine. What has he said so far? That he is open-minded towards Putin. That Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi is a "salesman" who takes up too many resources, and that he will "end the war" (without giving details) once he is in office.

While there is cautious optimism that Ukraine may continue to receive some funding, the real wild card is whether Trump will continue President Biden's restrictive policy on Ukraine's use of US weapons on Russian territory.

NATO
During his first term, President Trump, like his predecessor President Obama, put pressure on NATO allies to "pay their fair share". Since Trump's defeat in 2020, many countries are now investing two percent of GDP in their defense, especially in light of Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine. Some expect Trump to thank the states for the increase in funding and still call on Europe to further increase their efforts to "defend" the continent.

Economy and trade
Trade relations between the US and Europe are essential: during Trump's first presidency, the biggest dispute between the US and Europe was the tariff war, primarily the 25 percent surcharge on steel. Europe responded with tariffs on US products that sometimes amounted to more than 50 percent (e.g. Harley-Davidson and Jack Daniels).

Over the past four years, President Biden has maintained a truce with the EU and a very cooperative trade relationship. With Trump's return, this trade war could be reignited.

Trump's European friends
While few European politicians have spoken negatively about Donald Trump, there are a few who have publicly praised him. Ironically, these politicians are also some of the most controversial politicians within the EU. Praise comes from Italy, Hungary, Serbia and Slovakia, as well as from many far-right movements. Much of this support is based on the common anti-immigration policies that are gaining traction across Europe. This trend would have continued even with a Harris victory.

The dragon in the room
Perhaps the most important issue in terms of US-European relations has nothing to do with the countries of either region, but with China. In military terms, China's strength is growing faster than that of the US and Europe combined. Furthermore, China's economy balances cheap production with rising product quality.

Will come closer again: Trump and Xi Jinping

(Bild: AFP/Brendan Smialowski)

Both the US and the EU are struggling to compete in almost all areas of the market. As the famous old saying goes, "the enemy of my enemy is my friend". Europe and the US could very well find opportunities for cooperation in the face of the common threat posed by China.

Conclusion 
In 2016, many people around the world feared a Donald J. Trump presidency. As it turned out, many of these fears were unfounded. Conversely, many who welcomed a Trump presidency were disappointed that he was unable to deliver on numerous promises (which likely led to his defeat in 2020). A wise position for Trump's next term would be one between these two extremes.