"Krone" analysis

After the supply stop: gas attack on the wallet

Gas is still arriving in Austria from Russia - but it is not destined for Austria. The domestic gas network is generally designed for the export of Russian gas rather than the import of European gas.

(Bild: Antal Imre/Imre Antal)

Gazprom has turned off the gas tap to Austria. The supply is secured for this winter, but what happens next? The "Krone" knows where price increases await.

Last week, an international court of arbitration awarded OMV 230 million euros for irregular deliveries in the past. The debtor: Russia's Gazprom. OMV wanted to suspend payments for gas until the sum had been settled. The Russians reacted by cutting off gas supplies. The supply was stopped on Saturday morning. However, the Federal Chancellor, OMV and E-Control guarantee: The supply for this winter is secured.

But what happens next? 
Prices are stable for the time being. The impending exit may have already been factored in on the exchanges. One thing is certain: things can happen quickly on the energy market - as we also saw in 2022. In the short term, many experts expect electricity costs to rise by up to 20 percent. Customers with float tariffs will feel this acutely. This is because they are directly linked to the market price.

And Vienna's City Councillor for Economic Affairs Peter Hanke (SPÖ) warns: "Some upcoming price increases are also the responsibility of the federal government. It must ensure that consumers do not suffer from high energy prices."

Rising grid fees
This refers to rising grid fees and the expiry of the electricity price brake at the end of the year, which will further increase the burden on end customers. Initial forecast: Due to the increase in grid fees, electricity costs will rise by around 23 euros per month in 2025. The expiry of the electricity price brake will add another EUR 5.60 per month. For the gas grid, the tariff increases could be in the region of 30 percent.

The pipeline connection to Germany - the so-called WAG loop - is still a long time coming. This investment is long overdue.

Wiens Wirtschaftsstadtrat Peter Hanke (SPÖ) über die Herausforderungen der Gasbeschaffung abseits von Russland

Bild: Urbantschitsch Mario/f

Gas from Germany more expensive
The German gas storage levy (a kind of toll for the gas network) has also not yet been put on the table. The German government actually wanted to abolish this for Austria at the end of this year. A corresponding bill has already been introduced. The problem is that it is questionable whether the German Bundestag will pass it after the failure of the governing coalition of SPD, Greens and FPD.

If Austria purchases gas via Germany, it will still have to be paid for - and the quantities will of course not decrease. This will result in additional costs in the millions. And then there is another, not unimportant question: Can enough gas be transported to Austria at all? The urgently needed gas connection to Germany - the so-called West-Austrian-Gas pipeline (WAG) - has not yet been built.

Who has the Russian gas?
What's more, it's almost a paradox. Russia turns off the gas tap to Austria from one day to the next, but officially everyone thinks that this is not a problem. Nobody would have to freeze and industry would not suffer any damage. However, Austria was on Putin's drip until the very end. Until recently, around 90 percent of domestic gas imports came from Russia.

Sure, the gas storage facilities are well filled. But even without replenishing these reserves, the consumption of Russian gas hardly decreased. At best, everyone took the opportunity to fill the storage facilities relatively "cheaply". At worst, some market participants have now switched to panic mode. It is therefore unlikely that all these factors will have no effect on the energy price.