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8th plus in a row: FPÖ unstoppable under Kickl

Blue wave of success under leader Herbert Kickl: since 2022, the FPÖ has only made gains in elections.

(Bild: APA Pool/APA/ERWIN SCHERIAU)

Herbert Kickl has been at the helm of the FPÖ since June 2021. Under his leadership, the party has been able to make eight (sometimes significant) gains in nine elections to date. And the wave of success is likely to continue in 2025. 

On Sunday, the Freedom Party not only took first place in Styria for the first time, but also achieved its best result in Styria with 34.76% and a record increase (+17.27 percentage points).

FPÖ leader Herbert Kickl

(Bild: APA Pool/APA/ERWIN SCHERIAU)

Styrian election winner: FPÖ top candidate Mario Kunasek

(Bild: krone.tv)

Let's build 'Fortress Austria' together!

FPÖ-Verfassungssprecherin Susanne Fürst macht der ÖVP ein deutliches Koalitionsangebot

In the 2019 state elections, the FPÖ suffered a massive fall from this 2015 record result to 17.49% as a result of the Ibiza scandal involving former party leader Heinz-Christian Strache. This low starting point also made the record increase possible.

Strong results in the last federal elections too
In the national elections on 29 September, in which the FPÖ came first nationwide for the first time with 28.85% (+12.68 percentage points), the party achieved a strong result in Styria with 32.19% (+13.73%). The blue party's performance in the EU elections on June 26 was similar: the party led by chairman Herbert Kickl achieved 25.36% (+8.16) nationwide. Here too, the Freedom Party was able to take first place for the first time - just ahead of the ÖVP with 24.52%. The blue EU result in the Grüne Mark was also above the national average at 27.77% (+8.03).

The most recent state election (in Vorarlberg) on October 13 also brought the FPÖ massive growth: with a record increase of 14.07 percentage points, the party came second behind the ÖVP with a new record of 28.0%.

Ibiza video, political low point in the 2020 Vienna elections
The Freedom Party's resurgence began around two years after the Ibiza affair. After the scandalous video came to light on 17 May 2019, the party initially plummeted and lost 9.80 percentage points in the National Council elections in September 2019, slipping to just 16.17%. The state elections in the years 2019 to 2021 also resulted in (major) losses for the party across the board. The Vienna election on October 11, 2020, for example, was particularly dramatic: the state party slumped from a record 30.79% in 2015 to just 7.11% - a drop of 23.67 percentage points and a record loss for the party in Vienna.

After the Ibiza video was exposed on 17 May 2019, the FPÖ initially plummeted.

(Bild: Screenshot spiegel.de, SZ)

Corona pandemic: Kickl called for a "change of strategy"
The situation then changed significantly in 2021. The FPÖ, which at the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic in spring 2020 was still advocating a strict containment policy and whose current party leader Herbert Kickl, in his role as club chairman at the time, even personally called for "tough measures" and a lockdown of Austria in mid-March 2020, including the closure of all borders for individual travel in order to contain the pandemic, then very quickly changed course in spring 2020. On April 1, 2020, Kickl called for a "change of strategy".

"Kurz must go"
The pandemic was subsequently talked down, his signals echoed right into the anti-vaccination scene, and the then blue party leader was not thinking about wearing masks in the House. He much preferred to show up at a demonstration of the opponents of the measures - the whole appearance always paired with the slogan "Kurz must go".

FPÖ leader Herbert Kickl at a rally against the Covid-19 measures in March 2021

(Bild: APA/Herbert Pfarrhofer)

Kickl won the power struggle against Hofer
Following internal disputes between then FPÖ leader Norbert Hofer and Kickl over the question of who should be the next FPÖ leadership candidate, Hofer then resigned as party leader at the beginning of June 2021, with Kickl succeeding him as party leader on 19 June. Unlike his predecessor Hofer, who always tried to distance himself from far-right movements such as the Identitarians, Kickl showed no fear of contact.

Herbert Kickl won the power struggle against Norbert Hofer

(Bild: APA/EVA MANHART)

Anti-establishment image
The FPÖ was positioned in such a way that no competition could grow to its right. And Kickl was and still is trying to create an anti-establishment image. The other parties were and are not mentioned by name, but always denigrated as a "unified party". The FPÖ continued to focus on the blue core issue of migration. The party also takes opposing positions on other issues and opposes, for example, the broad support for Ukraine in the fight against the Russian aggressor. Doubts about man-made climate change have been fueled until recently.

Only gains since 2022
Blue electoral successes did not occur immediately after Kickl came to power, but in the following year. The state election in Upper Austria at the end of September 2021 brought the FPÖ a bitter loss of 10.59 percentage points. One year later, however - in the state election in Tyrol - the blue party was already able to make gains (+3.3). This trend then continued in all state elections, and the federal party also made gains in the polls and came in first place, which was then confirmed in the EU elections and National Council elections with first place in each case.

However, much to his annoyance, Kickl will not be able to provide the "People's Chancellor" he is aiming for due to a lack of partners in the federal government. However, things could be different in Styria, where it is well known that Mario Kunasek's declared goal is to become governor.

Five elections in the coming year
And 2025? There are two state elections (Burgenland, Vienna) and three local council elections (Lower Austria, Styria, Vorarlberg). It is quite possible that the blue wave of success will continue next year.