After the FPÖ election quake

For “Zuckerl” it’s now: “Close your eyes and go!”

The leaders of the ÖVP, SPÖ and NEOS are still looking for a common path.

(Bild: APA/HELMUT FOHRINGER)

After the blue miracle in Styria, the internal party headwind in the ÖVP and SPÖ is getting stronger. The sooner the three-party coalition is formed, the sooner the doubters will fall silent. A "Krone" analysis.

Although the blue victory was "priced in", the fact that the FPÖ nevertheless won so clearly and overwhelmingly in Styria is causing the coalition negotiators in Vienna some unease. So the motto now is: "Eyes closed and through!"

Internal resistance to a three-party government 
The strategy of the ÖVP, SPÖ and NEOS is neither complicated nor subtle. The quicker the three partners - or rather their 300 or so negotiators - reach an agreement, the greater the chances that the party leaders will survive and the candy coalition can be formed. There is resistance to a three-party government in the three parties and interests of individuals to profit from a failure at the negotiating table.

In the ÖVP, this would be industrialists who have sought closeness to Herbert Kickl in recent weeks and are dreaming of cooperation between the FPÖ and ÖVP. They argue that this is the only way to enable an economic upturn and a tough migration policy.

Rumors of a Kurz comeback
Many in the People's Party also see things differently: making Kickl chancellor does not arouse much enthusiasm. It is considered unlikely that Kickl could withdraw and make way for a less controversial FPÖ politician as chancellor. This means that ÖVP leader Karl Nehammer is also relatively firmly in the saddle - especially if a government is formed quickly. However, if it takes longer and the results of the Lower Austrian municipal council and Burgenland elections are added to this, the rumors about a possible return of Sebastian Kurz will become louder.

Former chancellor Sebastian Kurz

(Bild: Holl Reinhard)

Babler must save himself in a government
An incalculable factor for the formation of the "Zuckerl" coalition is above all the divided Social Democrats. In the SPÖ, Andreas Babler is experiencing what Pamela Rendi-Wagner (and others) had to experience through him: the internal criticism is massive, the claim to leadership is not only questioned behind closed doors. If Babler wants to survive, he must quickly save himself in a government.

The NEOS are self-confident enough to celebrate even gains in the per thousand range as an election victory and are pushing into the coalition. So far, Beate Meinl-Reisinger has made short work of internal critics, of whom there are plenty. So far. She also needs a quick negotiation success.

Kickl-FPÖ would benefit from new elections
The alternative would be new elections after failed negotiations. Only one party would certainly benefit from this: Herbert Kickl and his FPÖ. New elections would strengthen the Blue Party, but the search for a coalition partner would still not spare the head of the Blue Party.

The blue party is in luck: Mario Kunasek and Herbert Kickl were in each other's arms on Sunday evening.

(Bild: AP ( via APA) Austria Presse Agentur/ERWIN SCHERIAU)

Meanwhile, Kickl flexed his muscles and told the negotiators: "Taking responsibility after a resounding election defeat does not mean sticking to the chancellor's or governor's seat with the help of other losers, but clearing the way for the winner. That is the double message of the Styrian blue quake."