Eastern Europe expert
“If you are weak, Putin will definitely bite!”
Political analyst and Eastern Europe researcher Alexander Dubowy talks in the krone.tv live talk about the latest deliveries of long-range missiles from the USA, the security guarantees needed for Ukraine, intimidation tactics and the "language of strength".
According to media reports, the UK and France are apparently discussing the deployment of NATO troops to Ukraine. French President Emanuel Macron in particular is making a name for himself as the strongest advocate of a tougher course of war. Dubowy sees two decisive reasons for Macron's proposal to send NATO troops. In Macron's view, the most important reason is to position France as a capable actor within the EU and NATO in the time he has left, according to Dubowy. "With such demands, Emmanuel Macron is trying to present himself as a very central player within NATO."
Putin only speaks the "language of strength"
The second reason is that Macron is one of the few Western political players who understands how to talk to Vladimir Putin. "He has understood that Putin only speaks the language of strength. Weakness does not deter Vladimir Putin. Weakness does not make him less aggressive, but rather the opposite. If you are weak, Putin will definitely bite. In other words, Emmanuel Macron is definitely signaling a very strong position on the NATO side." Whether this deployment of NATO troops will ever actually take place remains to be seen. "A lot of promises have already been made on the Western side, which unfortunately have not been kept," says Dubowy.
Dubowy does not see the fact that the USA, after much hesitation, is allowing Ukrainian forces to fire on Russian positions with long-range missiles as a further escalation in the conflict. "This plan was discussed by US President Joe Biden for a long time so that Russia could prepare for the scenario."
In the event of a freeze in the conflict, it is important that the West provides Ukraine with guarantees. This has nothing to do with warmongering, said Dubowy. "Credible military deterrence prevents any military conflict. This means that anyone calling for credible military deterrence against Russia on the Western side today is certainly not a warmonger."
Watch the full interview with Alexander Dubowy in the video above!
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