Presidential election

Romania: A case of concern on Europe’s eastern flank

Demonstrators against the populist Georgescu

(Bild: APA/AFP/Daniel MIHAILESCU)

The presidential election in Romania next week is causing NATO and the EU to worry. What it means if Putin's friend Georgescu wins.

Romania is facing a decisive turning point. The first round of the presidential elections has thrown the country into turmoil. The surprisingly strong performance of far-right candidate Călin Georgescu is causing concern among Western partners, while his opponent Elena Lasconi is trying to mobilize a broad-based centre-right alliance. A recount of the votes should now clarify who goes into the run-off on December 8. But it is about more than just a question of personnel.

Strategic importance for NATO and the EU
With the longest EU border with Ukraine and its role as a transit country for arms deliveries to Kiev, Romania is an indispensable pillar of NATO's eastern flank. The NATO missile defense base is located in Deveselu, and the military alliance's largest air force base in Europe will be built in Constana by 2040 - a project worth billions that underlines Romania's strategic importance. The impetus for the plans was the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014.

Putin friend Georgescu

(Bild: Associated Press)

Georgescu, a critic of NATO's presence, has repeatedly spoken out against these facilities. His potential election successes could destabilize the security architecture in Eastern Europe. "Existing deployment agreements prevent him from closing the missile defense base", expert Gustav Gressel told the "Krone", "but he could undermine confidence in Romania as a reliable ally through delaying tactics and personnel decisions".

Conservative-Liberal: Elena Lasconi

(Bild: AFP/Daniel MIHAILESCU)

Endangering unity in the EU
At the same time, Georgescu's pro-Russian positions call into question Bucharest's previously clear support for Ukraine. Romania is not only a military player, but also an important partner in European solidarity with Kiev. A change of course would have negative consequences for Ukraine and possibly also for its neighbor, the Republic of Moldova, whose pro-European government is already under pressure. There is also the concern that a populist-nationalist Romania could form a group of states with Hungary and Slovakia that would strengthen Russia's influence within the EU and NATO and block reform efforts at European level.

A polarization of society
Georgescu also owes his popularity to the frustration of many Romanians. Support for Ukraine is perceived as non-transparent in parts of the population, while economic concerns and increasing populism on platforms such as TikTok are fuelling mistrust of established parties. At the same time, the liberal candidate Elena Lasconi is finding it difficult to win over traditional voters in rural regions - especially those who are skeptical of a woman in the highest office of the state. The upcoming run-off elections on December 8 will not only decide Romania's political future, but also stability on Europe's eastern flank. Tomorrow, the country will elect a new parliament. An unreliable Romania could weaken the unity of NATO and the EU - and would be an unexpected triumph for the Kremlin.