Rebels vs. government

Expert: Battle for Aleppo could get bloody

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01.12.2024 08:39

The rapid advance of a rebel offensive in northern Syria has catapulted the civil war country back into the headlines. The million-strong city of Aleppo, which is said to be largely back in the hands of insurgents, is at the center of attention.

Aleppo was once the scene of fierce fighting in the Syrian civil war before the government of President Bashar al-Assad regained control in 2016.

Will the government launch a counter-offensive next week?
Middle East expert and author Daniel Gerlach assumes that the Syrian government will launch a counter-offensive next week. He told the German Press Agency: "This will now cost a great many lives again."

(Bild: AFP)
(Bild: APA/AFP/Abdulaziz KETAZ)
(Bild: AFP)

Allies are weakened
Gerlach believes it is possible that the government will regain the upper hand. It is true that Assad's allies, Iran and Russia, are weakened or do not have the capacities they had before. Nevertheless, the Syrian government has units at its disposal that are capable of fighting urban battles. The strategy of first retreating and then fighting back with experienced units has been observed time and again in recent years, he says.

(Bild: APA/AFP/Mohammed AL-RIFAI)

According to Islamic scholar Simon Fuchs, the timing of the rebel offensive in Syria was chosen wisely. It was clear that neither Iran nor Hezbollah had an appetite for adventure after the setbacks in the conflict with Israel, said Fuchs in an interview with the German Press Agency. At the same time, Russia had not shown any willingness to intervene decisively in the fighting.

Tactical reasons
The rapid progress, including the extensive conquest of Aleppo by the rebel alliance, also had tactical reasons, said Fuchs, who teaches at Hebrew University in Jerusalem. These include the use of technically sophisticated drones by the insurgents. "The Syrian government troops really have nothing to counter this," said the scientist. The targeted use of suicide attacks by the Islamist group Haiat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) on certain government troop positions has also had an effect.

This article has been automatically translated,
read the original article here.

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