Assad's fall?

What’s at stake for Putin in Syria

From left: Syria's dictator Bashar al-Assad and Russia's ruler Vladimir Putin (archive photo)

(Bild: AP)

The rapid advance of Syrian opponents of the regime is likely to worry not only the local dictator Bashar al-Assad, but also Vladimir Putin. Russian forces have been supporting the regime for almost ten years in the fight ...

As "Bild" reported online on Monday, the Russian air force played a decisive role in capturing the city of Aleppo in 2016. Four years earlier, Assad's troops had lost control of large parts of Aleppo. This has now happened once again due to the advance of the regime's opponents. The rebel groups have also moved closer to the two most important Russian bases in the civil war zone - namely the Hmeimim airbase and the naval base in Tartus.

Base has strategic importance
According to the report, Tartus is of great strategic importance to the Russian navy. It is the only Russian Mediterranean port and warships can be repaired or refueled without having to dock in the Black Sea.

According to Israeli Middle East analyst Daniel Rakov, "the loss of Aleppo undermines Russia's image as a great power. The ability to show strength outside the post-Soviet space and protect client regimes is in question (...)."

The Russian naval base in the Syrian port city of Tartus

(Bild: AFP)

As reported, Russian jets recently supported Assad's troops. They flew airstrikes on civilian targets in the opposition areas. However, it is doubtful that more help will come. A large proportion of the troops and weapons are tied up in the war in Ukraine. And the Russian mercenary group Wagner, which was deployed in Syria for years, was officially disbanded after the attempted coup. The members were distributed among various forces and are also active in Ukraine and African countries, for example.

Naval commander-in-chief in Syria
The Ukrainian military intelligence service GUR announced that the Russian army had replaced the commander-in-chief in Syria. Colonel General Aleksandr Chaiko is now in command. In addition, the commander-in-chief of the Russian navy, Alexander Moiseyev, is said to have been sent to Tartus.

From the left: Assad and Putin

(Bild: AP)

More than 500 people have been killed in the latest clashes between Islamist rebels and government troops in Syria. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, this includes 92 civilians. The Russian air force targeted Aleppo, among other places, and bombed targets outside a hospital in the city center. Twelve people were killed, including eight civilians.

Ruler Assad described the major offensive by his opponents as a "terrorist escalation", saying the jihadist fighters were aiming to "redraw the map in line with the goals of the United States and the West".