Alarming study

Will the Arctic be ice-free by the summer of 2027?

The sea ice in the Arctic disappears at an unprecedented rate of more than twelve percent per decade.

(Bild: stock.adobe.com)

The area of sea ice in the Arctic is declining at an unprecedented rate. A threatening milestone for the Earth could occur as early as 2027 - the very first summer in history in which practically all the sea ice in the North Pole region melts.

This has now been calculated by an international team of researchers, including climatologist Alexandra Jahn from the University of Colorado-Boulder (CU Boulder) and Céline Heuzé from the University of Gothenburg in Sweden, using computer models. According to the scientists, such an ice-free Arctic could have a significant impact on the Earth's ecosystem and climate by changing weather patterns.

"The first ice-free day in the Arctic won't change things dramatically," said Jahn, who works at CU Boulder's Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research. "But it will show that we have fundamentally altered one of the defining features of the natural environment in the Arctic Ocean, which is that it is covered by sea ice and snow year-round, due to greenhouse gas emissions."

Jahn and his colleague Céline Heuzé from the University of Gothenburg based their calculations on the current scientific definition, according to which the Arctic Ocean, which has an area of over 14 billion square kilometers, is considered ice-free if less than one million square kilometers are covered by ice.

Sea ice is disappearing at a rapid rate
As the Earth is constantly warming due to the increase in greenhouse gas emissions, sea ice in the Arctic is disappearing at an unprecedented rate of more than twelve percent per decade. In September, the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) reported that this year's Arctic sea ice minimum - the day with the lowest amount of frozen seawater in the Arctic - was one of the lowest on record since 1978.

What is the NSIDC?

The National Snow and Ice Date Center (NSIDC) is a U.S. information and reference center dedicated to supporting polar and kyrospheric research.

At 14.28 million square kilometers, this year's minimum was higher than the historic low observed in September 2012. But this is still a sharp decline compared to the average coverage of 6.85 million square kilometers between 1979 and 1992.

As the researchers' simulations show, the Arctic Ocean could be ice-free for the first time in the late summer of 2027 if the following happens three years in a row: An unusually warm fall, which weakens the sea ice, is followed by a warm Arctic winter, which prevents the formation of new sea ice, and an equally warm spring.