US analysis says:

Putin’s credibility with allies shaken

Russian President Vladimir Putin was unable or unwilling to protect Bashar al-Assad's regime from the rebels once again.

(Bild: APA/AP)

In 2015, Russia intervened in the Syrian civil war and saved Bashar al-Assad's rule with brutal aerial bombardments. This time, apart from a few air strikes against the advancing rebel groups, there was no broad support. It is suspected that the Kremlin was simply unable to provide sufficient resources due to the war in Ukraine and its hybrid warfare against NATO. One thing is clear: Assad's fall has shaken the credibility of Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin among his allies.

Putin has protected authoritarian rulers in several countries from protests against their rule in order to promote his goal of a multipolar world order with the help of foreign partners and undermine the position of the USA, according to a situation assessment by the US Institute for the Study of War (ISW). "Russia's inability or deliberate failure to strengthen Assad's regime despite the rapid advance of opposition forces across the country will also damage Russia's credibility as a reliable and effective security partner around the world," the analysis states. "This, in turn, will have negative consequences for Putin's ability to rally global support for his desired goal of a multipolar world order."

According to Russian media, Assad and his family have been granted "political asylum" in Putin's empire.

(Bild: AP)

Assad himself - whom Russia claims to have "granted asylum for humanitarian reasons" after fleeing Syria, according to the Kremlin - may have survived, comments ISW. However, Moscow has not achieved its actual goal of preventing Assad from losing power. It is also questionable to what extent Russia can now maintain its strategically important military presence in the region.

According to ISW, Russian influence in Assad's favor since 2015 is likely to make it much more difficult for the Russians to establish a good relationship with the strengthened opposition forces in the country. According to Moscow, however, it has at least been possible to conclude an agreement with unspecified opposition forces that guarantees the security of Russian bases in the country.