After the fall of Assad

Can refugees from Syria return home?

In Europe, there are calls for refugees from Syria to return quickly after the fall of Assad.

(Bild: APA/AFP/Ozan KOSE)

In 2015, the civil war in Syria led to an unprecedented movement of refugees to Europe. With the fall of the Assad regime, there is now hope that many will be able to return home. But is this even safe in the current situation? Syria expert Thomas Schmidinger is skeptical.

The situation in Syria remains extremely unclear following the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime, the political scientist from the University of Vienna explains to krone.at.

War has even "intensified" in some places
"The war in the north is by no means over - it has even intensified," says the Middle East expert. The long-standing conflict is ultimately being fueled by different interests and actors. The HTS ("Hayat Tahrir ash-Sham") leader al-Golani, for example, who has his roots in al-Qaeda, is sending out signals for an inclusive government, but in videos from Damascus his fighters are already calling for a march on Jerusalem.

Is political stability even possible at the moment?
While many are skeptical about the takeover of power by Islamist groups such as HTS, the fighting between pro-Turkish forces and Kurdish units is escalating. The regions around Manbij and the north of the country in particular are the focus of heavy fighting. "It's hard to imagine that one group alone can prevail in such a diverse country," Schmidinger continues.

There would only be a peaceful future with compromise solutions, which in turn would probably require a federal system. 

I would advise everyone to wait and see how the situation develops in the coming weeks.

Thomas Schmidinger, Nahost-Experte

Bild: Universität Wien

Not a safe place: returning remains risky
While videos are already circulating on social media showing refugees returning to Syria, Schmidinger warns against making hasty decisions. "I was just in Kobane in the Kurdish regions of Syria three weeks ago, but I would think twice about it at the moment," says the expert.

Only in a positive scenario could well-trained Syrians play an important role in reconstruction. "I would advise everyone to wait and see how the situation develops in the coming weeks." It is "naive" to assume that Syria will develop into a moderate and stable system in a short space of time.

A large proportion of the refugees have been stuck in Turkey for some time. However, a solid political system is not yet in sight in Syria.

(Bild: APA/AFP/Ozan KOSE)

Afghanistan as a warning example?
Developments in Syria could show an even bleaker scenario than in Afghanistan after the Taliban took power. Unlike the Taliban, who have established a monopoly on the use of force, Syria is still fragmented into ethnic and religious camps, according to the expert. Without an inclusive government, the country threatens to descend into chaos. Particularly threatening: if the Kurdish SDF is defeated by Turkey and its allies, thousands of IS fighters could escape from custody - a potential nightmare for the region.

It is important to take a close look at who is coming and whether there are any grounds for refusing asylum, such as involvement in war crimes.

Thomas Schmidinger, Nahost-Experte

Bild: Universität Wien

Even bigger wave of refugees could come
While parts of the Syrian diaspora are considering returning, a defeat of the Kurds in the north of the country could trigger an even larger wave of refugees. "If the Kurdish areas are overrun, there is a threat of a new, perhaps even larger wave of refugees," warns Schmidinger.

At the same time, former supporters of the regime could try to leave the country: "You should take a close look at who is coming and whether there are any grounds for refusing asylum, such as involvement in war crimes," the expert continues.

Expert believes the EU has a responsibility
While the USA and Russia are currently focusing their attention on other conflicts, Turkey is increasingly destabilizing the region. What is needed now is an active Syria policy from the EU, warns the expert.

The EU must act if it does not want further waves of refugees.

Thomas Schmidinger, Nahost-Experte

Bild: Universität Wien

This is the only way to prevent humanitarian disasters and new waves of refugees. "The EU must act if it does not want further waves of refugees."

Conclusion: A fragile country on the brink
Syria is facing an uncertain future. While the fall of the regime gives hope for a new beginning, power struggles, the fragmentation of the country and Islamist groups threaten any chance of stability. A moderate Syria currently remains a distant vision - and without clear international strategies, another decade of suffering and insecurity looms.