Disaster for Putin

How the Kremlin is talking up the fall of Assad

Bullet holes in the portrait of the toppled dictator.

(Bild: AFP/Omar HAJ KADOUR)

Rebels? Which rebels? According to the Kremlin, Syria's long-time ruler Bashar al-Assad has personally and independently decided to step down. His fall is already a political and military catastrophe for Moscow.

"The withdrawal from the process of performing the duties of the head of state was Assad's individual decision," said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, according to Russian agencies. He would not comment further on Moscow's role in this.

Assad and his family were granted asylum in Russia following his overthrow in Syria. Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin, who has met with Assad time and again, made the decision to take the family into Russia, Peskov said on Monday. A meeting is therefore not planned. The Russian authorities have not disclosed Assad's exact whereabouts.

Assad had left the country after a rebel alliance led by Islamists entered Damascus at the weekend. Russia was considered a major supporter of his regime. Among other things, Moscow operates an air force base and a naval base on the Syrian Mediterranean coast. The Kremlin wants to negotiate their whereabouts with the future leadership.

"With the help of the Mediterranean base, Russia was able to demonstrate its military strength in the Mediterranean and thus exert influence. The same applies to the airbase," explained Colonel Markus Reisner from the Austrian Armed Forces to the broadcaster ntv. "From there, Russia was able to support the Assad regime." The loss of Syria would therefore also have enormous strategic consequences for Putin.

"I assume the Russians will now have to look for alternative locations. Libya comes to mind. They are already allied with General Haftar there," says the military expert.

According to the US Institute for the Study of War, Putin's embarrassment in Syria is also shaking his credibility: "Russia's inability or deliberate failure to strengthen Assad's regime despite the rapid advance of opposition forces across the country will also damage Russia's credibility as a reliable and effective security partner around the world," according to an initial analysis. "This, in turn, will have negative consequences for Putin's ability to rally global support for his desired goal of a multipolar world order."

What happens next in Syria?
It is not entirely clear who is now in charge in Syria. Following a top-level meeting in the capital Damascus, Mohammed al-Bashir, previously head of government (governor) in the rebel stronghold of Idlib, was tasked with forming a new Syrian government. This was reported by several Arab media outlets on Monday. The incumbent Prime Minister Mohammed al-Jalali declared in a TV address that he would support the transitional cabinet.

The parties have already met. Bashir can be seen in the video on the right:

Jalali agreed to hand over power to the insurgents. "Talks are taking place to manage the transition," said the prime minister of the old government. "What has happened in Syria is a revolution. It is the will of the people and their desire for change."

Al-Bashir comes from the north-western governorate of Idlib, the rebel stronghold from which the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) launched its offensive. According to reports, the politician studied electronics engineering and Islamic law. He is in his early 40s.