Change of power in Syria

“Erdogan is pursuing a neo-Ottoman policy”

(Bild: krone.tv)

The sudden fall of the Assad regime has plunged Syria into a historic upheaval. Kurt Seinitz, foreign policy expert at the "Kronen Zeitung", analyzes the causes of the overthrow and the prospects for the country in a krone.tv interview with Jürgen Winterleitner. International players such as Israel and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan also play a role: "He will be the overlord of Syria, at least that's how he sees it. Erdogan is pursuing a neo-Ottoman policy," says Seinitz.

After more than 50 years of dictatorship, Syria is at a turning point. The fall of dictator Bashar al-Assad marks the end of one of the "cruelest regimes imaginable", according to Kurt Seinitz. What was surprising, however, was how quickly the change of power took place: "It was surprising that the government soldiers threw down their weapons and nobody wanted to fight anymore."

Erdoğan asthe driving force
According to Seinitz, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan played a key role in the overthrow. "Turkey held its protective hand over the anti-Assad alliances. Then Erdogan suddenly decided: 'I'm letting them off the leash. Let's go to Damascus!" Erdoğan sees himself in a historical continuity: "For him, this is a return to historical ground."

Israel's military attacks
Alongside Turkey, Israel has also had a significant influence on developments in Syria. Seinitz refers to the latest military actions: "Israel has been carrying out heavy air strikes on Syrian territory for days. It has destroyed the remnants of Assad's air force, the fleet and the poison gas laboratories." This leaves Syria practically defenceless: "It is reminiscent of the situation in Libya after the fall of Gaddafi."

Unclear future prospects
But what does Syria's future look like? Seinitz remains skeptical: "At the moment there is total freedom, which could also be described as anarchy. The question is who will ultimately prevail in this group of anti-Assad alliances." Nevertheless, there could be hope, says Seinitz with regard to the rebel leader al-Golani: "Perhaps a miracle will happen and Mr. al-Golani will actually moderate himself."

New debate about Syrians in Austria: obligation to return or integration?
The impact on Europe and the Syrian refugees is also an issue. With the fall of the Assad regime, the discussion about Syrian refugees in Austria is gaining momentum. While Federal Chancellor Karl Nehammer and Interior Minister Gerhard Karner (both ÖVP) want to push ahead with concrete plans for repatriations, the EU Commission continues to describe Syria as a "non-safe country".

However, the new leader al-Golani is already calling on all Syrians to return to their homeland: "Your leader is calling you!" says Seinitz. The question is: will Austria actively urge Syrian citizens to return in future? And what does this mean for the integration of those who have already settled here? "Syrians should not fail to help rebuild their beloved homeland," says Seinitz.

New unrest possible
Finally, Seinitz warns of possible new refugee movements: "If a new civil war breaks out there, you have to expect it." However, the situation remains unclear and it will only become clear in the coming months whether Syria can achieve stability.