"Krone" poll

Blue soaring: Kickl scratches Kurz’s record

(Bild: APA/MAX SLOVENCIK)

If the current national elections were held, the FPÖ would be even stronger and would receive 37% of the vote. And the trend is rising. The losers would be the ÖVP and SPÖ.

Who would have thought that after the earthquake in Ibiza? Probably not even the most loyal right-wingers. The FPÖ - according to the tenor after the video was published - would sink to nowhere. Over and out.

Five years later, Herbert Kickl, who had been ousted as Interior Minister to Ibiza, won the National Council elections as party leader. With just under 29 percent, more than the charismatic father Jörg Haider in 1999 (26.9 percent) - and the current polls confirm this: The blue party continues to soar.

(Bild: stock.adobe.com, Krone KREATIV)

A representative study commissioned by the "Krone" from the Institute for Public Opinion Research and Data Analysis (IFDD) (1250 respondents, fluctuation range +/-2.8 percent) shows the following for the Sunday poll: if national elections were held now, the FPÖ would have around 37 percent (see chart above). This puts Kickl close to Sebastian Kurz's record of 37.5 percent after Ibiza in 2019. And also benefited from the FPÖ's brief collapse.

"Mister 37 percent" is currently caught up
Sebastian Kurz was "Mister 37 percent". "Kickl is on a par in our survey. The trend is probably still rising," says IFDD head Christoph Haselmayer. Much of what used to be true no longer applies today. "I recall statements from various journalists: 'With Herbert Kickl, the FPÖ is limited to a maximum of 20 percent'."

The current data is probably also due to the tough "sweetener negotiations". The ÖVP, SPÖ and NEOS are desperately trying to form a three-way deal that works for all sides. Criticism is getting louder and louder that they should finally get going. Above all, the economic situation requires an intact government as quickly as possible.

Only the NEOS remain unscathed 
The polls are putting further pressure on the potential coalition partners. The ÖVP, which still received a good 26% in the elections, would only be at 21%, the SPÖ at 20% (election result 21). "The ÖVP is now competing at a low level with the SPÖ with its worst result," says the pollster. However, it has always been emphasized that the FPÖ's sound barrier is one third. "Christmas 2024 now shows that this barrier has also been broken."

After all, the NEOS with Beate Meinl-Reisinger made slight gains and now have ten percent. Haselmayer: "The losses of the ÖVP and the SPÖ can be attributed 1:1 to the Freedom Party. The behavior of the Federal President in forming a government and resentment about a possible losing coalition could also play a significant role."