Strong year 2024

Gold price: expert expects further highs

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30.12.2024 11:25

2024 was an extremely good year for gold investors. Expert Ronald Stöferle expects the soaring price to continue in the coming months.

At around 2620 dollars per troy ounce (approx. 31.1 grams), the precious metal is worth almost 27% more than at the start of the year. "We had forecast 2660 dollars with our gold price model last year," says gold expert Ronald Stöferle, pleased with his near precision landing. "I can imagine that we will see 3000 dollars next year," said Stöferle.

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Our long-term price target, which we already announced in 2020 and received a lot of criticism for, is 4800 US dollars - and we are clearly sticking to it.

Ronald Stöferle (Bild: Incrementum AG)

Goldexperte Ronald Stöferle

The gold price reached its previous high of around USD 2790 per troy ounce (around 31.1 grams) at the end of October, shortly before the presidential election in the US. "Our long-term price target, which we already announced in 2020 and received a lot of criticism for, is 4800 US dollars - and we are clearly sticking to it," says Stöferle, whose investment and asset management company Incrementum, based in Liechtenstein, publishes its annual report "In Gold We Trust", which is highly regarded in the industry.

Long-term preservation of purchasing power as the central role of gold
Despite the current boom in gold, the following applies: "Gold will not make you rich overnight, but it will not make you poor either," says Stöferle. "The central role of gold is to maintain and increase purchasing power over the long term. Why? Because the gold stock only grows by 1.5 percent every year."

Unlike traditional commodities, which are consumed, gold is a commodity, explained Stöferle. Currently, the stock amounts to around 215,000 tons, and around 3,600 tons are added every year. "In relation to the total stock that has been extracted from the ground over the centuries and millennia, the annual production is very low."

Bitcoin value more than doubled in one year
The situation is similar with the cryptocurrency Bitcoin, which is based on gold and cannot be inflated at will. This is also the case with classic cars, Rolex watches, old wines and paintings, for example - "but they are not liquid, they are not fungible, they are not divisible, and there is no real global market for them." This is why investors are increasingly choosing Bitcoin over gold. The value of a Bitcoin has more than doubled since January 1 of this year from just over 44,000 dollars (42,166 euros) to just under 94,000 dollars recently. In mid-December, even more than 106,000 dollars were paid per Bitcoin.

Bitcoin (Bild: EXPA Picture/JFK)
Bitcoin

"Gold and Bitcoin have very similar characteristics and we see them as related rather than opponents," said Stöferle. "Satoshi Nakamoto, whoever that was, understood gold and our monetary system very, very well." (Nakamoto is the pseudonym of the person or group of people who invented the Bitcoin cryptocurrency).

"Value is always subjective"
 Stöferle does not accept the objection that Bitcoin is "nothing real" and could therefore become worthless from one day to the next. "As an old Austrian, I have to say that value is always subjective." Stöferle is alluding to the Austrian school of economics, one of the central features of which is the subjective theory of value. According to this theory, the value of goods cannot be determined objectively, but results from the individual preferences and decisions of consumers. "What is the value of a van Gogh or a Rembrandt painting, an Nvidia share or a property in the 1st district? As much as people are willing to pay." The world is becoming less and less physical. "More and more value is actually taking place in the digital world, why shouldn't it be the same with currencies?"

Stöferle does not believe that Bitcoin could be banned. "That's all out of the question now." With the approval of Bitcoin ETFs by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Bitcoin has joined the ranks of traditional financial assets. "As a portfolio manager, you no longer have the risk of adding Bitcoin to your clients' portfolios." The fact that future US President Donald Trump is talking about a strategic Bitcoin reserve is also "an absolute milestone". Stöferle's colleague Mark Valek, who specializes in Bitcoin at Incrementum, believes that the price of Bitcoin could rise to 180,000 dollars in the next two years.

No cannibalization
Stöferle does not believe that gold and Bitcoin could compete with each other, as the buyer groups are very different. Equities are also not gold's competitor, but rather the bond market. Demand for gold is currently very much driven by central banks, which absorb almost 30 percent of annual production. The global asset management industry currently has a volume of around 128 trillion US dollars. "The gold allocation is somewhere between one and two percent and Bitcoin is probably a tenth of that." Shifts are therefore more likely to come from the bond side.

This article has been automatically translated,
read the original article here.

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