Election trend shows:

FPÖ at record high in polls, ÖVP in decline

(Bild: APA/Georg Hochmuth)

The NEOS' withdrawal from the coalition negotiations with the ÖVP and SPÖ comes at the worst possible time, especially for the Chancellor's party. Since the election defeat at the end of September, the People's Party has been in decline, while polls show the Freedom Party at record levels.

The ÖVP was recently only just above 20 percent in the polls. Should there be new elections, the FPÖ would make massive gains. In the APA election trend, which takes into account the polls of the last five weeks, the blue party recently stood at 35.5 percent.

Things have been going downhill for the ÖVP since the election
In the National Council elections, the Freedom Party was still comparatively close ahead of the ÖVP with 28.8% and 26.3%. Since then, the gap between blue and turquoise has widened. At the end of October, the FPÖ was at 32%, at the end of November at 33% and in December at almost 36%. For the ÖVP, on the other hand, things have been going downhill since the election: from 24% at the end of October to 23% in November to just 21% in December.

SPÖ slips, NEOS make slight gains
The SPÖ has also lost ground slightly in the polls recently: In the National Council elections, the Social Democrats only came third for the first time with 21.1%. From this historic low, the SPÖ recently slipped to just under 20 percent in the election trend. The Greens, on the other hand, were able to stabilize at the level of their last election result (at eight percent), the NEOS even increased slightly (from 9.1 to 10.4 percent).

Blue party at up to 36%
In the polls conducted in December, the FPÖ achieved between 35% and 37%. This puts the Freedom Party slightly above its previous record of up to 35% from the end of 2016, which was the highest figure recorded by the IFDD institute, which surveyed 1250 Austrians about their voting intentions on 17 and 18 December. Unique Research and Market put the Freedom Party at 35% and the Lazarsfeld Gesellschaft at 36%.

ÖVP only at a maximum of 22 percent
Conversely, the ÖVP only achieved 20 to 22 percent in December, the SPÖ 19 to 21 percent. The Greens have remained stable at seven to eight percent since the election. The NEOS poll results have developed comparatively positively. The Pinken reached ten to twelve percent in December - slightly above their election result of 9.1 percent.

The NEOS had been negotiating the formation of a three-party coalition with the ÖVP and SPÖ since mid-November. On Friday, they broke off the talks.