Current poll

FPÖ still clearly ahead, little interest in Kurz

While the FPÖ is still far ahead, the ÖVP is looking for a new savior.

(Bild: APA/Helmut Fohringer)

The Institute for Public Opinion Research and Data Analysis surveyed: Following the collapse of the "Zuckerl coalition", the FPÖ would come in at 37% in the Sunday poll - ahead of the ÖVP (21) and the SPÖ with just 19. The NEOS would make slight gains. Meanwhile, a comeback by Sebastian Kurz(canceled for the time being anyway) would meet with little enthusiasm.

The surprising domestic political eruptions following the collapse of the coalition negotiations and the withdrawal of Federal Chancellor and ÖVP leader Karl Nehammer raise many questions. Among them are the effects on the potential electorate.

Christoph Haselmayer from the Institute for Demoscopy and Data Analysis (IFDD) launched a representative snap poll for the "Krone" newspaper immediately after the "Zuckerl" burst or crumbled as a result of the NEOS withdrawal. Sample 1250 people, fluctuation margin 2.8 percent. A key question: Who would you vote for after the recent events? The FPÖ is stable at the top with 37 percent - lower limit 34, "with potential up to 40", says Haselmayer.

Major parties "at the bottom"
This puts Herbert Kickl's Freedom Party on a par with a survey conducted shortly before Christmas. The ÖVP would currently be a long way behind with 21%, while the SPÖ would lose slightly once again and would only reach 19% with leader Andreas Babler. The NEOS could reach 11 percent and thus gain one percent.

(Bild: Vienna Press/Andreas Tischler)

"Of course, all of this could still change depending on future developments," says Haselmayer in view of the fresh impressions of the exploded three-way experiment. In any case, one thing is certain: the former major parties ÖVP and SPÖ have reached "rock bottom". In other words: it can't get any lower.

Relative majority in favor of new elections
The question of new elections also reveals interesting facts: 49% are in favor, which is the relative majority (46 against); 48% currently see a national crisis; 47% would like to see an FPÖ-ÖVP government, but just as many are against it. 59 percent think that ÖVP Chancellor Karl Nehammer should resign - as many as 16 percent of ÖVP voters(note: the survey was conducted before the announcement of Nehammer's resignation on Saturday evening). Worse still would be the result for Babler - 65 percent want him out of the top job, just under a quarter of SP voters (22 percent).

Return of the former chancellor? 71% would be against it!
The question of a possible comeback by Sebastian Kurz is explosive. The former turquoise serial winner had also been brought into play by the powerful "Bild", among others, as a promising heir to Nehammer. Late on Saturday evening, Kurz withdrew - at least for the time being. He probably doesn't want to take on the vice-presidency under Herbert Kickl.

However, according to the IFDD survey, a comeback would have been met with little enthusiasm anyway. "Should Kurz take over the ÖVP?" - 71 percent say no. And - particularly enlightening - 50 percent of ÖVP voters. Haselmayer: "Sebastian Kurz no longer seems to be the ÖVP's savior."