Not a "high-risk game"

Why an FPÖ/ÖVP coalition is likely

Ministers in the National Council

(Bild: APA/GEORG HOCHMUTH)

Coalition negotiations between the FPÖ and ÖVP have now become quite likely. Statements by Federal President Alexander Van der Bellen and the new ÖVP leader Christian Stocker have contributed to this.

As reported, Van der Bellen had said that "the voices within the ÖVP ruling out cooperation with Kickl have become quieter". This had opened up a new path. He did not rule out giving Kickl the new government formation mandate.

"I believe that the change in this line with Van der Bellen and also the ÖVP (...) has opened the gates very wide in the direction of blue-black cooperation," said political advisor Thomas Hofer. Kickl could probably "circumnavigate" a commitment to human rights, media freedom and the EU.

According to the new ÖVP leader Stocker, his party intends to accept any offer of talks from the FPÖ on coalition negotiations. "Now it depends on how Kickl reacts - also to Stocker's personnel", said pollster Peter Hajek.

"Better than new elections"
For the analysts, the fact that the ÖVP now wants to form a coalition with Kickl after all, contrary to its announcement in the national election campaign, is due to the circumstances. In the short term, this is better for the party than new elections. The ÖVP would probably not be able to achieve the 26.3 percent from the September 29 election, said Hajek. "New elections would have been a real high-risk gamble," added Hofer.

In the long term, however, the party has problems, such as the increasing loss of differentiation from the FPÖ. Disappointed ÖVP voters "from the bourgeois-liberal segment" could migrate to the NEOS. Both the ÖVP and the SPÖ had shown with the failure of the negotiations that the Republic could not rely on them, said Hajek.