Gloomy car study

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US President-elect Donald Trump wants to use import tariffs to offset what he sees as an "unfair" balance of trade between the EU and the US.

(Bild: APA/2024 Getty Images)

The import tariffs threatened by future US President Donald Trump could deal another serious blow to the already struggling car industry in Europe. According to a study, the trade barriers could cause billions in additional losses and the loss of up to 25,000 jobs.

In the study published on Thursday by management consultants Kearney, the potential losses for car manufacturers are put at between 3.2 and 9.8 billion US dollars (around 3.1 to 9.5 billion euros), depending on how high the tariffs turn out to be and whether the car manufacturers pass the costs on to buyers or not. 

VW, BMW and Mercedes particularly affected
Volkswagen, Mercedes and BMW and their suppliers would be particularly affected. Together, the German manufacturers imported around 640,000 vehicles from Europe to the USA. According to his assessment, demand for electric cars in particular is likely to collapse if the tariffs are passed on to buyers. In a second scenario, suppliers in particular are likely to suffer if manufacturers initially bear the tariffs themselves and then pass these costs on to their suppliers. This is standard practice in the industry, says Kearney expert Nils Kuhlwein. 

In the medium term, new tariffs could lead to a further relocation of production by manufacturers, Kuhlwein continues. Suppliers are then likely to follow suit.