For the first time since 1850

Global warming averaged 1.6 degrees in 2024

(Bild: stock.adobe.com/Wolfilser)

2024 was the first year since measurements began that was warmer than the pre-industrial average by an average of 1.5 degrees worldwide. It was also the warmest year ever measured, as reported by the Climate Change Service of the EU Copernicus program.

In recent months, the Climate Change Service had presented similar preliminary estimates. According to the latest data, the previous year was even 1.6 degrees warmer than the estimated average temperature from 1850 to 1900. At the same time, each of the last ten years (2015 to 2024) was among the ten warmest since records began, the UK-based climate change service in Reading reported.

Warmest year since 1850
"All internationally compiled global temperature data shows that 2024 was the warmest year since records began in 1850," emphasized Carlo Buontempo, Director of the Climate Change Service. The huge data set comes from weather stations, satellites, airplanes and ships around the world.

"This report is a warning signal, because we must do everything we can to reduce greenhouse gas emissions," says Niklas Höhne, co-founder of the NewClimate Institute. "We must do more than before."

Warmest year on record in Europe too
According to Copernicus, the global average temperature in 2024 was 15.10 degrees, 0.12 degrees higher than in 2023, the warmest year on record. A new record for the hottest day was set on July 22, 2024 with a global temperature of 17.16 degrees. 2024 was also the warmest year on record in Europe.

In 2015, the Paris Climate Agreement agreed to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels if possible. However, not only was 2024 warmer, but also the two-year average for 2023 and 2024, which was 1.54 degrees, according to Copernicus. "This does not mean that we have exceeded the limit set out in the Paris Agreement." The agreement refers to temperature deviations that are averaged over a period of at least 20 years.

"I think the 1.5-degree target is no longer tenable," said Andreas Fink from the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT). He also believes that the technologies for removing CO₂ from the atmosphere will not be able to extract the necessary quantities of CO₂ from the atmosphere in the coming decades. It is therefore absolutely essential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions very quickly. The costs of escalating climate change are significantly higher than turning away from coal, oil and gas.

Extreme weather events are on the rise
1.5 degrees is a political target above which things will happen "that we no longer find acceptable", said Höhne. 2024 had shown how dangerous such a temperature level already was. "There were extreme events all over the world: temperatures above 50 degrees, extreme precipitation that brought as much rain in one day as it usually does in a year, and huge fires that could not be put out," emphasized the climate researcher. "As long as we continue to emit greenhouse gases, the temperature will continue to rise and with it the probability of these extreme events."

Oceans also reach record temperature
According to Copernicus, not only the land areas but also the oceans outside the polar regions reached a record annual average surface temperature of 20.87 degrees in 2024, which is 0.51 degrees higher than the average for the years 1991 to 2020.

In addition, there was also the highest amount of water vapor ever measured in the atmosphere. In 2024, it was around five percent higher than the average from 1991 to 2020. In combination with high temperatures at the sea surface, this contributed to severe storms, including tropical cyclones.

On the other hand, prolonged dry periods in several regions favored forest fires, Copernicus writes, referring in particular to large-scale and long-lasting forest fires in America. In addition, the area of the Earth affected by at least "severe" heat stress reached a new record on July 10, when around 44 percent of the Earth experienced "severe" to "extreme heat stress".

Record levels of CO₂ and methane
The Copernicus experts believe that the main reason for the high temperatures is the high emission of man-made greenhouse gases. For example, the concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere reached new record levels in 2024 since measurements began. Another factor in the warming was the El Niño climate phenomenon, which peaked in December 2023 and also influenced temperatures in the first half of 2024.

Höhne nevertheless points to positive developments: "We have seen that we can change things," he said. "Renewable energies, the number of e-cars and heat pumps are developing faster every year worldwide than previously predicted."

Still a lot to do for a better world
"Ten years ago, we calculated that the earth's temperature would rise by 3.5 degrees by the end of the century compared to pre-industrial times," said Höhne, referring to the Climate Action Tracker project. Thanks to the rapid development in climate protection, it is now 2.7 degrees. If all countries meet their announced climate neutrality targets, it would be 1.9 degrees, the researcher explained.