More than hoped for

Persistently high global inflation expected until 2028

(Bild: Deemerwha studio/stock.adobe.com)

According to economic experts, high inflation will remain a problem worldwide in the coming years. In 2025, the global average inflation rate is expected to be 3.9 percent, according to the quarterly survey published on Tuesday by the Ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute. "Inflation expectations remain above the inflation targets of many central banks," said Ifo researcher Niklas Potrafke.

According to the Ifo researcher, major interest rate cuts are therefore unlikely given these inflation expectations. Many central banks are aiming for an inflation rate of two percent. The 1,398 experts from 125 countries surveyed in December also expect only a slight decline in the longer term. They expect a global inflation rate of 3.5 percent in 2026. It is also expected to remain at this level in 2028.

Austria's inflation expected to be 2.5 percent this year
The experts expect an average inflation rate of 2.4 percent for Germany in 2025, 2.5 percent for Austria and 1.2 percent for Switzerland. "Inflation expectations have risen in North America in particular," they said. Experts there expect an inflation rate of 2.6 percent this year. This is 0.2 percentage points higher than in the previous quarter's survey. Inflation in North America is expected to reach 2.8 percent in 2026 and even 2.9 percent in 2028.

One reason for this is likely to be the tariff threats from US President-elect Donald Trump. Higher tariffs are likely to make imports from the world's largest economy more expensive. Many experts therefore assume that the US Federal Reserve will only lower its key interest rate once this year.

"The regions with particularly high inflation expectations include South America and large parts of Africa," explained the Ifo Institute. Inflation rates of more than 20 percent are expected there.