"Krone" elephant round

Analysis Christoph

Klaus Herrmann and Corinna Milborn moderated the elephant panel discussion, which focused on Hans Peter Doskozil and Norbert Hofer.

(Bild: Antal Imre)

A top-class panel of experts (video above) analyzed the TV confrontation with the six leading candidates for the 2025 state election. For Norbert Hofer, if he has the chance to form another coalition past the SPÖ, he will do so. You can watch the round here.

It is the most exciting Burgenland election that there has perhaps ever been, said Rainer Nowak, deputy editor-in-chief of the "Krone" in the expert analysis after the elephant round on Puls 24. With Hans Peter Doskozil (SPÖ) and Norbert Hofer (FPÖ), two candidates who are among the most "dazzling" politicians in Austria are competing against each other. Even the SPÖ is afraid of Doskozil.

Red or blue?
A duel in which the main question is: Will the SPÖ manage to win the absolute with Doskozil or will Hofer and his FPÖ, with the support of the ÖVP, manage to snatch the seat of governor despite the Reds coming first? 

Klaus Herrmann and Corinna Milborn moderated the Elephant Round, which focused on Hans Peter Doskozil and Norbert Hofer.

(Bild: Antal Imre)

Expert analysis after the elephant round

(Bild: Antal Imre)

"Governing past" a strong SPÖ?
For political scientist Kathrin Stainer-Hämmerle, a blue-black state government could be a realistic scenario. In the federal government, the ÖVP and FPÖ are closer to each other than the ÖVP and SPÖ. Pollster and IFDD head Christoph Haselmayer was also convinced: "If the ÖVP and FPÖ have a majority in the Burgenland state parliament, then they will probably form a coalition - regardless of how strong the Social Democrats become next Sunday." Hofer has repeatedly articulated a duel challenge to Doskozil in recent weeks. "If I have the opportunity to form another coalition that bypasses the SPÖ, then I have to do it. I only get a chance like this every 60 years," said Haselmayer.

According to Stainer-Hämmerle, "governing past" a strong SPÖ would not be a novelty. In Carinthia, too, the ÖVP and the Freedom Party have repeatedly made Jörg Haider governor. "Of course, it's also a question of how high you set the price for cooperation." But it would definitely be democratic. "A majority is a majority," says the political scientist.

Coalition difficult for Doskozil
The personal relationship of trust between the candidates also plays an important role. "It seems to me that there is no close bond between Christian Sagartz and Hans Peter Doskozil," analyzed Stainer-Hämmerle. According to Nowak, this has to do with the fact that the ÖVP has sharply attacked the governor's economic policy - keyword "Doskonomics". If Doskozil does not retain the absolute, he will probably sleep badly when thinking about possible coalition partners: "He does not want to enter into a coalition with Norbert Hofer and also not with this ÖVP."

Debt and budget "not decisive for elections"
 The issues of debt and transparency were important for the Greens and Neos in the TV confrontation. But can they win elections? No, it is only a "side stage" that is not decisive for elections, Haselmayer judged. But only as long as there are no problems, added Nowak. Because then the "planned economy from Eisenstadt" could quickly become the main stage.

In general, Stainer-Hämmerle would have liked to see less restraint from the Green top candidate Anja Haider-Wallner in the TV confrontation. "She could have been more aggressive more often."

"Never ever"
At the end of the discussion, the question arose as to who the SPÖ could form a coalition with if it loses the absolute. Hofer had announced during the Elephant Round that he wanted to stay in Burgenland, said Stainer-Hämmerle. This would reduce the chances between red and blue. However, political personnel tend to change after election days, which could open up other avenues. Nowak takes a similar view: "You should never say never in Austria." For Haselmayer, a lot depends on how many parties make it into parliament. "As things stand, it's more likely to be three than four." There is also the possibility that Doskozil could defend his absolute victory. "That would be a mega sensation."