"There will be an eruption"

Iceland trembles before volcanic eruption near glacier

Volcanic eruptions occur regularly in Iceland - now an exceptionally large one could be imminent.

(Bild: APA Pool/AFP)

Is Iceland on the brink of the next natural disaster? Following a series of violent earthquakes, a possible volcanic eruption is expected at Europe's largest glacier. The local conditions could even lead to a violent flood.

Magma is accumulating around ten kilometers below the Bárdarbunga volcano in the northwest of the Vatnajökull glacier, said Kristín Jónsdóttir, head of the volcano and earthquake department at the Icelandic Meteorological Authority. In recent months, activity has increased and major earthquakes have been experienced in the region as underground pressure has built up, she said.

"And that can only lead to one thing: Eventually there will be an eruption." However, it is extremely difficult to predict when this will happen - it could even take years before it happens. There could also be very different types of eruptions: If one were to occur under the glacier, it would lead to catastrophic flooding.

130 earthquakes recorded within a few hours
Vatnajökull is the largest glacier in Europe outside the polar regions. Around the huge Bárdarbunga volcano system, which is partly covered by the ice colossus and partly not, the most violent earthquake swarm in ten years occurred on Tuesday - back then there was an eruption that lasted for months. An estimated 130 earthquakes have now been recorded within a few hours, including 17 with a magnitude of 3.0 or higher and one with a magnitude of 5.1.

As a result, the Icelandic Civil Defense Authority declared an uncertainty level, which means that it is closely monitoring the situation and its potential threat to people, the environment and infrastructure. Since then, the earth has calmed down again for the time being.

Memories of the Eyjafjallajökull eruption
The volcanic hazard at an Icelandic glacier is inevitably reminiscent of the eruption at Eyjafjallajökull, which paralyzed international air traffic for days with a kilometer-high ash cloud in 2010. As was the case back then, the current eruption was also a volcano covered by a glacier, but the one back then was significantly smaller than Bárdarbunga, says volcanologist Jónsdóttir.

In the event of an eruption within the glacier area, a similar situation to that time could be expected, she says - including an ash cloud with possible consequences for air traffic. However, everything depends on how strong the eruption is, how long it lasts and where the wind blows. At the same time, lessons were learned from Eyjafjallajökull, which means that the impact on air traffic will probably be less this time.