Restrictions, tariffs
Trump’s return is a risk for the economic forecast
Donald Trump's return to the White House is a risk for the economic forecasts of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). His political proposals such as trade restrictions and tariffs have not yet been included.
It is conceivable, for example, that inflation in the USA could rise, said IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas. According to the latest forecast, economic growth in the USA will rise by 0.5 percentage points to 2.7 percent this year. Globally, the IMF is forecasting 3.3 percent.
Major US banks are currently banking on softer regulation under Trump. They are hoping, for example, that various capital rules will be revised. These include lower capital surcharges for globally active banking groups and a revision of the supervisory stress tests.
Banks find regulations excessive
In the years following the 2008 financial crisis, the capital requirements for banks were tightened. Major US banks such as JP Morgan, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs are required to hold almost one trillion US dollars to cover potential credit and trading losses. They consider the regulations to be excessive and poorly balanced.
According to the US bank executives, financial institutions generally agree that it would be better if a weaker set of rules were established under a Trump administration than if the supervisory authorities were to put the project on hold for the time being. Because then there would be a risk that a future Democratic government would introduce tougher regulation.
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