Is a major crisis coming?

Economic experts are afraid of Donald Trump

(Bild: AP, YouTube.com/NEO MAGAZIN ROYALE)

Economic experts are currently sweating bullets. Because if they have their way, Donald Trump's second US presidency is likely to have a negative impact on western industrialized nations in particular.

"The concern that Donald Trump will damage the economy is particularly widespread in western industrialized countries," said Ifo researcher Niklas Potrafke on the results of the quarterly survey of almost 1,400 experts from 125 countries published on Monday by the Ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute.

"In Africa, Latin America and Asia, on the other hand, the experts hardly expect any negative effects on economic growth in their countries."

In Ukraine, for example, the majority hope for Trump's influence, while in Germany the majority view Trump's influence negatively.

Ifo-Institut

North America, Europe and Oceania pessimistic
The regions with the greatest optimism with regard to economic growth - such as Central and South Asia as well as Northern, Eastern and Southern Africa - also have more positive expectations of future US trade policy under Trump. In North America, Europe and Oceania, on the other hand, almost all experts - namely around 80% - believe that international trade will become more difficult once the Republican takes office.

Opinions are also very unevenly divided when it comes to the question of what contribution Trump can make to resolving current conflicts. Respondents in the USA and Europe fear negative effects here too. In contrast, experts in Africa, Eastern Europe, Central and South Asia even expressed positive expectations. "In Ukraine, for example, the majority hope for Trump's influence, while in Germany the majority view Trump's influence negatively," says the Ifo Institute.

Bad effect on climate policy expected
However, there is broad global agreement when it comes to the impact of Trump's presidency on climate policy: 78% of respondents expect a negative effect here.

Trump's second term begins with his swearing-in this Monday. He has repeatedly threatened to impose high tariffs on imports, which could hit European export champion Germany, for example.