Red lethargy

SPÖ remains divided even after Doskozil’s success

Everyone in the SPÖ is cooking their own soup.

(Bild: Krone KREATIV)

Hans Peter Doskozil's success in Burgenland is once again fueling the debate about the leadership and course of the Social Democrats. However, a conflagration has failed to materialize - the SPÖ remains deeply divided. Party leader Andreas Babler could suffer the same fate as Pamela Rendi-Wagner once did.

The SPÖ lacks both the unity and the personality for a palace revolution. The party remains in silent lethargy. There was no criticism whatsoever from the executive committee after the breakdown of the Zuckerl negotiations. The only critical comment - voiced by co-negotiator and grand dame Doris Bures - went unheeded.

Doskozil only talks to the federal party from the outside
Doskozil has no say in the federal party committees; he withdrew some time ago. He is irreconcilably at odds with the Vienna SPÖ. Following his election success, he will only continue to express criticism from the outside. This means that everything in the Social Democrats will remain as it is for the time being. No change is to be expected before the Vienna elections - all observers agree on this. 

SPÖ is below the perception threshold in the West
In the West, the Social Democrats have sunk below the perception threshold; in Salzburg, a new party leader has been sought in vain for months. The only dazzling personality, the Tyrolean Georg Dornauer, had to resign after a hunting adventure with bankrupt René Benko. There are only signs of life in the east, but both the Viennese SPÖ and Doskozil are cooking their own soup. There is no common narrative. Doskozil does not have the strength to renew the SPÖ. His allies are weak.

Lercher, Doskozil and Zwander celebrated side by side.

(Bild: zVg)

Red triangle 
The SPÖ's western axis, consisting of the provincial parties in Tyrol, Salzburg, Upper Austria and Lower Austria, was shattered by the resignations of three out of four provincial party leaders. Now a new camp is forming with Lower Austria and Styria around the Burgenland governor. While congratulations from the federal party were delayed and ex-ex-party leader Werner Faymann congratulated Doskozil, Doskozil's friends from Styria and Lower Austria came to Eisenstadt. 

Doskozil's friend Lercher is back
Max Lercher was one of the first SPÖ celebrities to arrive at the Landhaus on Sunday. Lercher was the SPÖ's federal managing director under the red ex-chancellor Christian Kern and, after a short break from top politics, became the red regional party leader in the Green Mark after the SPÖ's poor performance in Styria. He is considered a close confidant of Doskozil - just like Wolfgang Zwander. The former spokesman for Kern worked in Burgenland for many years and has been the SPÖ's regional party leader in Lower Austria since 2023. The SPÖ's good performance in Burgenland has also strengthened the camp around Doskozil and Christian Kern in Vienna. 

Doskozil's recipe for success

"Doskonomics": Burgenland's governor receives a lot of criticism from experts and the opposition for his "social economic policy", also known as "Doskonomics". The caring nationalization is well received by the population. According to popular opinion, Doskozil would rather invest the money at home than send it to Brussels or spend it on missiles for Ukraine. Only Doskozil himself knows how the hiring of care workers, the buyout of insolvent companies and numerous free childcare services will turn out financially in the end.

An angularmigration course: Doskozil's second characteristic is his angular migration course. Although not much is decided in the federal states when it comes to immigration, the governor has nevertheless managed to build up the image of a gentle tough guy. This has enabled him to retain many voters who are inclined towards the FPÖ.

Personality: Doskozil is well received, not least because of his personality. He is dominant and is seen as a "doer". He does what he thinks is right. This is appreciated by voters. 44% said they voted for the SPÖ because of its "good work", 22% because of Doskozil's personality. The SPÖ's core electorate came in third place with 11%.

The probability that the SPÖ will undergo a radical change after the Vienna elections is not very high. On the contrary, Babler will position himself as the antithesis of the blue-black government and perhaps even hold on until the next election. His previously unsuccessful line could work better with a right-wing government. As with his predecessor Rendi-Wagner, his opponents will be waiting for the next defeat to dismantle him.

The Mayor of Vienna

(Bild: Zwefo)

The situation has not become any easier for Babler
Using the same tactics, Michael Ludwig will probably do reasonably well in Vienna and remain mayor. "The situation has not become any easier for Babler with Doskozil's success," says political consultant Thomas Hofer. "He is somewhat surrounded by Max Lercher's takeover of the Styrian SPÖ, the critical Lower Austrians and the Viennese, who tolerate him more than they prefer."

The only question is whether the many critics of Babler will be able to agree on someone else. It seems much more likely that the SPÖ is about to enter a longer phase of opposition. It is therefore not very likely that someone new will take over. Babler's opponents lack a common strategy.