Right-wing extremists "normal"

Experts warn: Trump will “slaughter” the EU

Donald Trump in the Oval Office: Has the end of decency in politics arrived?

(Bild: APA/AFP/ROBERTO SCHMIDT)

What will happen to the EU under US President Donald Trump? If Brussels experts have their way, the community of states will drift even further apart. It is particularly worrying that right-wing extremist forces are now normal - this was not the case under "Trump I".

The fact that Trump did not invite any official EU representatives to his inauguration, but did invite right-wing nationalists such as Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, is likely to be indicative of his time in office. He is "astounded by the flood of comments in the media these days", said Jean-Louis De Brouwer, EU Director at the Belgian Egmont Institute.

 Nothing Trump has done since taking office on Monday has been "surprising or unpredictable". "He is now implementing what he announced. That has been known since November 6 (day of the US election, note). In contrast to eight years ago, when everyone was surprised," he compares Trump I with Trump II.

It's a big mistake to think Trump II will resemble Trump I. His political support in the US is overwhelming. He is much more accepted, his polarizing tactics have become normal.

Elizabeth Kuiper

Nevertheless, the Belgian does not think that the EU is better prepared this time than in 2016, as its official representatives never tire of emphasizing. Elizabeth Kuiper, associate director of the Brussels-based think tank European Policy Centre (EPC) and board member of the NGO "Defend Democracy", is convinced that Trump himself is better prepared than when he first took office: "It is a big mistake to think that Trump II will be similar to Trump I. His political support in the USA is overwhelming. He is much more accepted, his polarizing tactics have become normal," warns Kuiper.

Colombian migrant Margelis Tinoco (48) cries - she was rejected by the USA.

(Bild: ASSOCIATED PRESS)

"What is happening in Austriashows that it is also happening in Europe"
 EPC Managing Director Fabian Zuleeg speaks of a "normalization of the extreme" and uses Austria as an example: "What is currently happening in Austria shows that it is also happening in Europe." In a joint three-way discussion round with former EU ambassador to the USA João Vale de Almeida this week, EPC expert Janis A. Emmanouilidis reiterated that there has also been a "trend towards regressive, illiberal forces in Europe in recent years. They are cheering Trump's victory and believe that he can help them stay in power or take it over."

What happens in America doesn't stay in America. We will feel it in Europe.

João Vale de Almeida

"End of decency in politics"
 Ambassador de Almeida describes the fact that so many far-right politicians were invited to the inauguration and others were not as "very worrying". He fears an "end to decency in politics". De Almeida was head of the EU delegation in the USA from 2010 to 2014. "What happens in America does not stay in America. We will feel it in Europe." Emmanouilidis believes that Trump II "will test us collectively and individually. It will be difficult, especially when it comes to the unity of the 27 (EU states, note)."

Many Americans are hoping for a "golden era" under Trump II.

(Bild: ASSOCIATED PRESS)

"We'll see if we're able to stay calm, cool and united. I have certain doubts," says the EU expert. Ambassador de Almeida shares the concern about a lack of unity among Europeans: "The costs are very high. What is agreed individually will take its toll." EPC chief economist Zuleeg warns of the "enemy within" the EU: the far-right forces would "do everything to sabotage and help Trump to divide Europe". The US President has "practically no resistance to implementing what he wants".

No one in the new EU Commission has a good relationship with Washington.

Jean-Louis De Brouwer

"The EU must get its act together"
 "If Trump wants to do business with the EU, he prefers to turn to the member states," confirms Elizabeth Kuiper: "Divide and conquer." She misses the unity among the EU countries. "The Trump administration's approach is to divide us as much as possible," De Brouwer is also convinced. "The EU needs to pull itself together and know what it wants. If it doesn't know that, Trump will slaughter it." Personal relationships play a major role for the new US president. "But nobody in the new EU Commission has a good connection to Washington."

On the contrary: while Trump described former Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker as a "tough cookie", the relationship with Ursula von der Leyen is likely to be difficult: "It won't help von der Leyen that she had a good relationship with (former US President) Joe Biden," analyzes the Dutchwoman. "She could be seen as a person who was with the enemy," De Brouwer adds.

Transatlantic relations will no longer be the same
The professor of EU politics and law sees two approaches to dealing with the Trump administration: "Some say he is a businessman who wants to make deals." On the other hand, the government is very driven by ideology, "and that could spill over into the EU". He cites the deportation policy as an example: "They will never achieve the figures they have announced", he is convinced. But they will show that returns are possible. EU politicians could then say "it works in the USA, we will do the same".

NGO director Kuiper fears an "external shock for EU policy areas such as security, defense, migration, climate and health". She cites the withdrawal from the Paris climate protection agreement as an example: "The USA is a leader in clean technology. It makes no sense to pull out, either from a climate or business perspective." The EU needs to "reflect more in the area of security, as we have always relied on the USA". She concludes: "Transatlantic relations will no longer be the same."