"Risk picture 2025"

Austrian Armed Forces name greatest threats to Austria

Cyber attacks, fake news, migration flows - but also dangers from the air are the most likely threats to Austria's security.

(Bild: Krone KREATIV/P. Huber / krone.at)

What is the current and future security situation in our country? What dangers can we expect? And how are we prepared for them? On Monday, the "Risikobild 2025" was published by the Ministry of Defense - which also names the three most serious threats.  

Europe is in a state of war. 
This dry analysis marked the beginning of this year's presentation of the "risk picture", an annual assessment of the situation by the Austrian Armed Forces, on Monday. But instead of enemy armored columns, "hybrid attacks" have long been rolling across the continent. In the form of cyber attacks on companies and infrastructure, in the form of disinformation campaigns, keyword "fake news", but also in the form of refugee flows that are deliberately directed to Europe's borders by Russia via Belarus, for example.

The strongest wins again
"The law of the jungle is enjoying a renaissance," says Brigadier Roland Vartok, and immediately names the three biggest threats to peace in Austria and Europe: 

1. Russia
   The army planners still do not rule out the possibility of an expansion of the war of aggression from Russia to the rest of Europe. The next three to five years are critical, and it remains to be seen whether there will be a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia, for example in the Baltic states. 
2. Cohesion in the EU
   External disinformation campaigns are currently being used to weaken cohesion and the ability to cooperate within the EU. Russia has built up its own propaganda network for this purpose, which has already influenced democratic processes in Georgia and Moldova. 
3. Cyber attacks
   Blackout scenarios are certainly possible following attacks on the domestic infrastructure and would have national significance. If they were to occur, it would not only be up to the Austrian Armed Forces, but every single Austrian.

Defense Minister Klaudia Tanner at the "risk picture" presentation on Monday

(Bild: HBF/Carlovits)

Focus on threats from the air
Even if not very likely, there is still a particularly high risk of attacks from the air due to the potential for damage, Vartok continued. Drones and cruise missiles have repeatedly made it onto European territory in recent years - either deliberately or by accident - and have struck there. "Being surrounded by NATO countries is no protection - none of the missiles and drones, such as those in Croatia in 2023, were intercepted by NATO air defense chains," said Vartok.

"We are not an island of the blessed. We never were," attested Federal Minister Klaudia Tanner to the decision-makers from the military, industry and politics in attendance. "We have only now become aware of both." 

Time for alliances?
Political scientist Peter Filzmaier notes that this awareness is not yet very pronounced among the population. "It would be kind of good if we had it" is the highest of feelings when Austrians are asked about their attitude to national defense. But if the law of the jungle is becoming increasingly important in geopolitical terms, Filzmaier asks: as a small neutral state, shouldn't we start to ask ourselves whether defense alliances don't have an advantage?