Authorities are arming themselves

These cyber dangers threaten the election in Berlin

Going into the Bundestag election as the favorite according to the polls: CDU candidate Friedrich Merz

(Bild: APA/AFP/Tobias SCHWARZ)

Concerns about digital election manipulation are running rampant in Germany ahead of the Bundestag elections: the security authorities are looking to identify and contain potential cyber attacks, foreign influence and the spread of disinformation at an early stage.

According to information from security circles, however, there are no findings to date that indicate a concrete threat to the early Bundestag elections on February 23. Nevertheless, the aim is to protect oneself and not provide a target for foreign actors.

Election process itself not at risk
According to those responsible, the election process itself is not at risk - thanks to the sluggish digitalization of the German administration. This is because the decisive steps are still being carried out in analog form. The Federal Returning Officer, Ruth Brand, is being supported by the Federal Office for Information Security (BSI) in securing the digital transmission of the state results and determining the provisional election result. However, the final election result is based on the records of the electoral boards anyway.

Reminders of the "Doppelgänger" campaign
A particularly striking example of political disinformation is the "Doppelgänger" campaign uncovered in 2022. Here, attempts were made to spread Russian narratives about the war in Ukraine using deceptively real-looking online portals or websites of well-known media outlets. The aim was obviously also to call democratic values into question by deliberately spreading false information on the internet and via social media.

After the campaign was launched, fake websites were noticed in several EU countries that mimicked the websites of well-known media outlets or institutions. At the end of July 2023, the EU placed five organizations linked to the Russian state and seven people responsible on a sanctions list. The campaign included fake quotes that were put into the mouths of celebrities from the entertainment industry and spread via social networks.

According to estimates from security circles, the Greens, the SPD and the CDU/CSU have recently been particularly targeted by disinformation campaigns.

Deepfakes: when photos and videos lie
New developments in the field of artificial intelligence are opening up additional opportunities for people and intelligence services who want to manipulate public opinion. At the beginning of December, for example, the leading Green Party candidate, Economics Minister Robert Habeck, became the target of a disinformation campaign set up with the help of AI. A report about alleged allegations of abuse appeared on a website that was no longer accessible shortly afterwards. This included a video manipulated with AI. The Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution views the report with its false allegations as a deliberate attempt to discredit the politician.

It is often very difficult for laypeople to recognize such fakes. Deepfake tools can be used to create artificial voice recordings that can hardly be distinguished from the real voice. In the case of the fabricated accusations against Habeck, the evidence points, as is often the case in such cases, towards Moscow. Against the backdrop of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine, Russia probably had the greatest and most obvious interest in influencing the election in its own interests, the Office for the Protection of the Constitution announced in November.

Fear of hacker attacks and data leaks
Among other things, the security authorities are preparing for "hack and leak" operations. These are cyber attacks in which access is gained to internal communications in order to publish them later, often with the aim of exposing those affected or fueling political debates on certain topics.

Last year, for example, a Russian intelligence service intercepted a Webex call from four senior air force officers. The recording was made public. The officers had discussed deployment scenarios for the German cruise missile.

There was an example of "hack and leak" for the purpose of influencing elections in the USA in 2016. At the time, a Russian hacker group had captured emails from the Democratic Party. The emails were then published shortly before the election and damaged Hillary Clinton, who was then running against current President Donald Trump.

Cyber attacks on political parties are not uncommon
In June, a cyber attack on the CDU came to light. The Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution and the Federal Office for Information Security then began an investigation. Among other things, the central membership file was affected. It is suspected that Chinese hackers may have been behind the attack. However, according to German experts, China has so far been more interested in classic espionage for the purpose of gathering information, not in the publication of captured data.

The SPD was the victim of a cyber attack in 2023. At the time, email accounts at the party headquarters were hacked. The German government blamed a unit of the Russian military intelligence service for the attack. In May, the Federal Foreign Office summoned a high-ranking Russian diplomat and called the German ambassador in Moscow, Alexander Graf Lambsdorff, back to Berlin for a week of consultations.

Algorithms deliver targeted propaganda
By targeting content based on user profiles - known as microtargeting - election advertising or disinformation can be directed at specific target groups. It can also influence public opinion, as algorithms often give preference to polarizing, emotional content. So-called social bots amplify this effect. Social bots are automated programs that operate in social networks, post comments and simulate human behavior. They also create and distribute their own content.

Around a month before the election, Interior Minister Nancy Faeser (SPD) invited the operators of several platforms. One of the topics discussed was the issue of algorithms. Faeser's message: "The major internet platforms bear responsibility for what happens on their platforms."