Ungovernable after the election?

Election 2025: The German fear of Austria

Friedrich Merz's CDU and Alice Weidel's AfD will emerge victorious from the German elections - but they do not want to form a coalition.

(Bild: AFP)

The German federal election on February 23 is approaching, but instead of a spirit of optimism, political uncertainty prevails in Germany. Friedrich Merz and the CDU/CSU will almost certainly emerge victorious. But stable majorities seem a long way off. 

The SPD and the Greens, both well behind, are sharpening their rhetoric - especially against the CDU leader. The SPD in particular is toughening its stance. Not in terms of migration policy, but in terms of distancing itself from Merz.

The election campaign has escalated since the CDU/CSU pushed through a motion for a resolution on migration policy with the support of the AfD: "Friedrich Merz has gambled away and left a shambles behind him," the SPD wrote on Instagram. Olaf Scholz, staged as the "chancellor for the center", accuses Merz of "breaking a taboo".

Olaf Scholz presents himself as the "chancellor of the center"

(Bild: APA/AP)

However, this apparent incompatibility between the supposedly popular and centrist parties is raising concerns about an ungovernable political landscape - and people in neighboring countries are not afraid to say: "Similar to Austria."

There, deadlocked coalition negotiations between the ÖVP, SPÖ and NEOS may end in an FPÖ-led government for the first time - a scenario that is also feared in Germany.

"Breaking a taboo": Green Party leader Habeck takes Merz to task.

(Bild: AFP)

Could benefit: AfD leader Alice Weidel

(Bild: snapshot / SZ-Photo / picturedesk.com)

Under fire: CDU leader Friedrich Merz

(Bild: AP/The Associated Press)

After the heated exchange of blows in the Bundestag, the political center appears to be further divided. The SPD and Greens are clearly distancing themselves from Merz, while he is still hoping for coalition negotiations with them. He himself says: "If I hold out the keys to them after the election, they will move."

But how realistic is that? SPD parliamentary group leader Rolf Mützenich made it clear: "Merz has opened the door to hell", a coalition with him is hardly conceivable. Robert Habeck of the Greens spoke of an "irreconcilable crisis of confidence". The problem: if Merz actually becomes chancellor but is unable to find partners, there is a threat of months of deadlock - or even new elections.

In Vienna, disputes between the parties led to Federal President Alexander Van der Bellen ultimately deciding to form a government under the FPÖ. A similar scenario is feared in Germany: If the CDU/CSU fails to find partners and the SPD refuses, the AfD could benefit from the blockade. The question now is: Will the SPD be aware of its political responsibility? Or will it remain on a confrontational course? What will Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier do?

If there is no clear government majority, Steinmeier could play a decisive role. Back in 2017, he succeeded in persuading an initially reluctant SPD to form a coalition with the CDU/CSU. Would that be possible this time too? The SPD is still holding firm. At least when it comes to Merz as a person.

If the CDU/CSU does not nominate an alternative to Friedrich Merz, Olaf Scholz could try to sound out a government option with the Greens and the Left Party. However, a stable majority would not be in sight here either - initially it would probably remain a minority government, which could hardly count on votes from the CDU/CSU in the election for chancellor.

In such a case, the Basic Law offers a special possibility: after several failed rounds of voting, the Bundestag can also appoint the chancellor with a relative majority - the only decisive factor would then be who receives the most votes. However, the final step would lie with the Federal President: Steinmeier could appoint the person elected in this way - or decide to dissolve the Bundestag and hold new elections. The central question is therefore not who will be the next chancellor - but with whom he can govern at all.

But one thing is clear for the SPD: if it refuses to do so completely, it could itself become the cause of political gridlock. In the coming weeks, new polls will show whether voters are still fed up with the constant bickering or whether they will vote for a stable government for Germany. So far, the dispute has had little impact on the current polls. The CDU is making slight gains in all trend observations, while the Greens, AfD and SPD are losing or gaining slightly, depending on the institute. This does not make things any easier.