Analysis

What the chaos in the federal government means for the Vienna elections

Posters for last year's parliamentary elections. All smoke and mirrors.

(Bild: Krone KREATIV/Neos, SPÖ, FPÖ, Grüne, ÖVP)

The "spectre of blue and black" is gone: two parties in particular now have to rethink their strategy, another is in a dilemma and has a serious problem. 

First things first: the chaos in the federal government is not ideal for any of the Viennese parties in the election campaign. Political consultant Thomas Hofer calls the current situation "3-roof chess". Expert government, new elections, a duo, trio or quartet on the government bench? Everything is open - a state of limbo. Nevertheless, a few lines can be drawn for Vienna. We asked experts about this.

• Vienna SPÖ: On the one hand, it has to rewrite its script because the "spectre of blue and black" is gone. On the other hand, the mayor's party can be relaxed. "Because there will in all probability not be a majority against the Reds in the state parliament," says political scientist Peter Filzmaier. And Mayor Ludwig and his team are well positioned.

The SPÖ and NEOS will have to rewrite their script. The FPÖ can now use its text modules from the opposition.

Politikwissenschafter Peter Filzmaier

Bild: Imre Antal

• Vienna FPÖ: The blue party can now play out its role as an anti-system party more freely and focus fully on the issue of asylum. The Vienna FPÖ is likely to make strong gains from its historic low in 2020 (7.1%). A duel for the city leader's seat is still unrealistic, however, and co-governing remains a distant prospect. "A double-edged sword", says political consultant Thomas Hofer.

• Vienna ÖVP: difficult situation. Chairman Karl Mahrer is facing charges of embezzlement. The Kurz bonus is gone. Heavy losses loom at the ballot box. The Black Party can only hope that it will be enough for a coalition with the SPÖ and that Ludwig wants this.

Things are not going well for the ÖVP. The FPÖ can present itself as an anti-system party. The SPÖ has to reorganize its resources but is well positioned.

Politikberater und Autor Thomas Hofer

• Vienna Neos: Similar to the SPÖ. The Pinks will emphasize their achievements in the city government. No great leaps are to be expected.

Local elections are local elections. Safety, public transport and quality of life remain the important issues. Little has changed at the meta-level.

Markt- und Meinungsforscher Peter Hajek

• Vienna Greens: Can detach themselves from the quarrels. They were never invited to negotiations. This will probably not make much difference to their approval ratings.

What the experts are still saying: There should be clarity at federal level by mid-March at the latest. Otherwise voters' trust in state institutions will dwindle. Nobody can want that.