IHS boss Holger Bonin

Economic researcher warns: Europe on the brink of collapse!

A top economist sees a bleak future for the EU and its economy.

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A nightmare scenario for Europe! Holger Bonin, Director of the Institute for Advanced Studies (IHS), paints a bleak picture for the future of the continent - and therefore also for Austria. "We are under enormous pressure from outside," warns the top economist. "We will have to discuss how far we have to submit to the Americans."

What will things look like for Austria and Germany in a year's time? Bonin does not have a good opinion of the current policy: "I'm afraid not good." Governments still believe that they can do "business as usual" with US President Donald Trump - in other words, leave everything as it is. But the expert warns: "There could be tariffs and the pressure from outside will be great. Europe will face enormous external challenges, but will not find any answers."

And then the side blow: "Many in Europe still don't believe that Trump is serious about what he says." But Bonin is certain: the US president is serious - and Europe is not prepared.

Putin, tariffs, chaos: Europe has no answers
Bonin also takes a dim view of the Ukraine crisis. "And what will we do if Putin attacks the Baltic states? There will be no solutions," says the researcher. The EU also has no answers to the threat of US tariffs: "We might react to tariffs by imposing new tariffs on Harley-Davidson motorcycles. But we will probably not say that we will shut down the American digital networks. That's the powerlessness of politics!"

De-industrialization: Europe's industry is fleeing to the USA
The consequences? Accelerated de-industrialization! Bonin explains: "If the USA imposes tariffs and at the same time makes its country more attractive by cutting red tape, lowering taxes and reducing energy costs, this could have fatal consequences for us. European companies might prefer to invest in the USA rather than in a "Europe that is eternally weak and offers no solutions".

"Why is Trump so fascinating?" asks top economist Bonin. The answer: "Because he is disruptive and does things that were not thought possible. Unfortunately, he's doing the wrong things."

(Bild: AP)

"Why is Trump so fascinating? Because he's disruptive!"
 The main reason for Europe's weakness? The slowness of the EU. Bonin puts it in a nutshell: "Why is Trump so fascinating? Because he is disruptive and does things that were not thought possible. Unfortunately, he is doing the wrong things. But that doesn't make disruptive behavior wrong; in Trump's case, it's just the goals and the way he wants to achieve them."

People are longing for change, says Bonin. They recognize that administration and systems no longer function optimally. "It starts with not being able to get a doctor's appointment." But the EU remains sluggish.

Rescue plan: "Two-speed Europe"
 Bonin's solution? A "two-speed Europe". Countries that want to lead the way - for example in defense or energy policy - should be allowed to do so. "The EU must move towards a 'two-speed Europe' and change the principle of unanimity. Otherwise we won't develop any power to act!" A new start is urgently needed. Otherwise the continent will be left behind by the USA and other global players. Time is of the essence!