97th Oscars

“Anora” rules over chaos in the supreme discipline

Will the film "Anora" ultimately win an Oscar in the supreme discipline? Everything still seems to be open!

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Artificial intelligence, racist tweets and a controversy over intimacy standards. The Oscar race has been pure chaos for the longest time. Now that Sean Baker's US indie drama "Anora" has been named "Best Picture" by three landmark organizations, there seems to be a frontrunner in the supreme discipline at the 97th Oscars, which will be awarded tonight. 

Last year's Best Picture Oscar winner, Christopher Nolan's "Oppenheimer," was a universally admired favorite. However, neither strategists, experts nor anyone else in the industry had any idea in the current awards season which film would emerge as the favorite in the supreme discipline. The US industry magazine "Variety" called it "the year without a frontrunner".

From underdog to top dog
And then there was "Anora", a frank and stylish examination of the life of a sex worker from Brooklyn who falls in love with a pampered oligarch's son from Russia. Sean Baker's ("The Florida Project") tragicomedy won the Palme d'Or at Cannes in May 2024 (the first US film to do so in over a decade), but since its world premiere it hasn't had much success outside of critics' circles.

Mikey Madison had foregone an intimacy coordinator for her role as a prostitute. A minor scandal!

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There was also a controversy. The 25-year-old leading actress Mikey Madison had refused an intimacy coordinator for her role as a stripper and prostitute, breaking this new, important rule in Hollywood in the eyes of some critics. In any case, Baker's film was left out of the Golden Globes.

But apparently the current favorite had simply been hiding in plain sight. "Anora" won both the director's and producer's prize in its home country, as well as the prize for best film at the Critics Choice Awards. It is extremely rare for a film to celebrate this triple win and then not take home the top prize at the Oscars.

Criticism of AI use
The former industry favorites, the immigrant drama "The Brutalist" and the narcomusical "Emilia Pérez" have received a lot of negative press in recent months. The former is a three-and-a-half-hour emigration epic starring Oscar winner Adrien Brody ("The Pianist") as a Hungarian Holocaust survivor who flees to the USA only to see his American dream trampled underfoot.

The film "The Brutalist" with Adrien Brody was criticized for its use of AI.

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The subject matter would traditionally appeal to the Academy, but Brody Corbet's ten-time nominated drama came under fire for its use of artificial intelligence to optimize the actors' Hungarian, and AI is a buzzword that scares many in the industry.

Much excitement about "Emilia Pérez" star
AI was also used to improve Karla Sofía Gascón's singing voice in "Emilia Pérez". However, this is the least of the problems with Jacques Audiard's musical about the development of a Mexican drug baron into a "baroness". Never before has a non-English-language film received 13 Oscar nominations - including one for Gascón, the first openly transgender actress to be nominated for an Oscar.

After Karla Sofía Gascón's scandalous tweets, the film "Emilia Pérez" probably has no chance of winning.

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But her chances of winning have evaporated due to her Islamophobic and racist tweets from her past, and with them probably the chance of winning the main prize. On top of that, there are still members of the Academy who harbor resentment towards Netflix. It would be the first win for the streamer behind the production in the top category.

The most Christian candidate and the horror vote
Michael Schulman from the US magazine "New Yorker" called the Oscar race "as chaotic as 'Conclave'". The eight-time nominated drama by Edward Berger revolves around the election of the next pope and sheds light on the dirty intrigues of the cardinals vying for the Holy See.

As in the film, a succession of minor scandals in this year's Oscar race threatens to throw one contender for Best Picture after another off course, "leading to one of the most chaotic campaign seasons in recent history", writes Schulman.

The film "Conclave" with Ralph Fiennes is also nominated for an Oscar. But does it really have a chance of winning?

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Berger's political thriller with Ralph Fiennes would be the solid, safe and politically clean choice this year. It would also be redemption for the Austrian-Swiss director of "Im Westen nichts Neues", which lost out to "Everything Everywhere all at Once" in 2023. However, he is not nominated for Best Director this year, which reduces his chances.

Of the ten nominees this year, there is only one film directed by a woman. We are talking about "The Substance" by French director Coralie Fargeat ("Revenge"), which gave Demi Moore her comeback.

Demi Moore has a good chance of winning an Oscar. It's a different story for her film "The Substance".

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The actress will probably pick up the golden boy for her performance, but it is unlikely that the five-time nominated horror body shocker will win in the royal category. The Academy is not usually well-disposed towards the genre. No horror film has won the Oscar for Best Picture since "The Silence of the Lambs".

Witches, sandworms and Dylan
One of the biggest surprises was the three nominations for the Brazilian drama "Forever Here" starring Golden Globe winner Fernanda Torres (also nominated). Walter Salles' ("Central Station") film about a family that takes a stand against a military dictatorship is unlikely to win, but now that "Emilia Pérez" has fallen out of favor, it has a very good chance in the Best International Film category.

Fernanda Torres in "Forever Here"

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With "Dune: Part Two" receiving no nominations (five in total) in other major categories, Denis Villeneuve's sci-fi franchise will likely have to wait until his return to Arrakis to be competitive, should the Academy decide to honor the entire trilogy.

The same goes for Jon M. Chu's fantasy musical "Wicked," a ten-time nominated box office hit that may have a better shot at the crown when the sequel "Wicked: For Good" is released at the end of this year. But even here, nothing is set in stone - should the Academy decide in favor of the "Popular Vote".

But perhaps "Wicked" will also pick up a golden boy ...

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And although musical biographies are one of the most popular sub-genres among Oscar voters, they don't usually win the Golden Boy for Best Picture. The last one to do so 40 years ago was "Amadeus" by Miloš Forman. The chances of James Mangold's eight-time nominated Bob Dylan film "Like A Complete Unknown" in this discipline are correspondingly slim.

"Nickel Boys" seems like an outsider this year with two nominations, but that says nothing about the quality of the film directed by RaMell Ross. The drama traces the path of a black teenager in the 1960s who is wrongly sent to a reform school characterized by violence and abuse. There is no domestic theatrical release date yet.