Is black-red coming?

13,000 votes make a new edition of the Groko possible

Scholz no longer wants to take part in negotiations with Merz and the CDU.

(Bild: ANDREAS GORA/EPA)

Following his victory in the German federal elections, CDU leader Friedrich Merz has announced talks on the rapid formation of a government under his leadership. Because Sahra Wagenknecht failed to enter the Bundestag with her party BSW by a wafer-thin margin, the election winner escaped a political catastrophe.

Mathematically, a majority with the SPD would now be possible, which achieved its worst result to date in the federal government under Chancellor Olaf Scholz. It fell behind the AfD, which came second in the election. The Greens and the Left Party are also represented in the new German Bundestag, while the FDP and BSW are not.

Sahra Wagenknecht's BSW only narrowly missed out on a place with 4.972%. The BSW was around 14,000 votes short of the five percent threshold. If the BSW had entered the German Bundestag, the CDU/CSU would have had to find two coalition partners to form a government. This also means that Merz would have avoided a blocking minority (third of the seats) of the AfD and BSW, which would have made important decisions dependent on the extreme parties.

In his own words, Merz is now aiming to take over the office of German Chancellor quickly: "I would like us to be finished forming a government by Easter at the latest." He wants to talk to all "parties of the democratic center". Leading SPD representatives were open to coalition talks with the CDU/CSU.

Crushing defeat for Olaf Scholz

(Bild: EPA)

SPD faces realignment
Chancellor Scholz hinted at personal consequences on election night. In possible coalition talks with the CDU/CSU, he would "not be the SPD's chief negotiator", Scholz said on ARD television. He would not be available for any government office other than that of Federal Chancellor.

The SPD made its first personnel decisions on the evening of the election: party leader Lars Klingbeil is also to take over the leadership of the SPD parliamentary group. This was "unanimously proposed" by the SPD executive committee at a meeting on Sunday evening, Klingbeil said on ARD television. His co-party leader Saskia Esken will remain in office. The current parliamentary group leader Rolf Mützenich will not be standing again.

FDP thrown out of the Bundestag
Long-time FDP leader Christian Lindner announced his departure from politics on election night after his FDP failed to re-enter the Bundestag - for the second time in the history of the Federal Republic after 2013. "I am now retiring from active politics," he wrote on the online service X.

AfD leader Alice Weidel described her party's massive gains as a "historic result". The AfD has now "firmly established itself as a popular party". Weidel expressed her willingness to participate in government: "Our hand will always be outstretched," she said. As all other parties have ruled out cooperation with the AfD, the party, which is right-wing extremist in parts, will remain in opposition.

The vote for the 21st German Bundestag saw massive shifts in voter favorability. The biggest winner is the AfD with an increase of 10.4 percentage points. The biggest losers are the SPD with a drop of over 9.3 points and the FDP with a drop of 7.1 points.

The Greens mourn a missed opportunity
Green candidate for chancellor Robert Habeck described the result for his party as "mixed". "I wanted more, we wanted more," said Habeck. The Left in particular had been more successful in scoring points with "young, progressive people".

SPD leader Klingbeil held out the prospect of a personnel reshuffle in view of his party's poor result. He spoke of a "turning point" and the need for a "generational change". Federal Minister of Defense Boris Pistorius, who is considered a contender for high SPD offices, spoke of a "devastating, catastrophic result". SPD co-leader Esken called on the CDU/CSU to approach her party with a willingness to compromise: "If that is possible, we will not shirk this responsibility," she said on ZDF television.

Left Party top candidate Heidi Reichinnek expressed her "unbelievable gratitude" for the strengthening of her party, which had become the strongest force among first-time voters. She announced that the Left Party would now campaign for political change in the Bundestag, "whether we are in opposition or in government, it doesn't matter".

The Bundestag will be reduced in size
The new, smaller German Bundestag will have 630 members. According to the provisional final result, the CDU/CSU will have 208 seats. Together with the SPD (120 seats), they would have a majority in the Bundestag.

The AfD would receive 152 seats, the Greens 85 seats and the Left Party 64 seats. In addition, there is one seat for the Südschleswigscher Wählerverband (SSW), which is exempt from the five percent threshold as a party of the Danish minority.

Voter turnout rose sharply to 82.5 percent. This is the highest figure since the 1987 election. At the last general election, voter turnout was 76.4 percent.