Middle East expert warns

Europe could face a new wave of refugees

The refugees would then be joined by "experienced fighters and cadres", according to expert Walter Posch.

(Bild: APA/AFP/Ozan KOSE)

The situation in Syria could bring more refugees to Europe. The call for the dissolution of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) could lead to a wave of refugees and the change of power in Syria could encourage people to flee. At least that's what one Middle East expert says.

If the situation in Syria escalates, Europe can expect refugees from the country, warns Middle East expert Walter Posch. But what is the current situation in Syria?

The imprisoned Kurdish leader Abdullah Öcalan, founder of the banned Kurdistan Workers' Party, has called on the party to disband. There is also a change of power in Syria. There, Ahmed Al-Sharaa has been appointed interim president following the fall of Bashar al-Assad. These two events could bring the situation in Syria to a head.

Middle East expert Walter Posch warns that if the Kurds in Syria are unable to preserve their autonomous self-governing region (AANES, Rojava) - an area that they control - or transform it into the new Syria, a collapse is to be expected.

Collapse would "inevitably lead to new refugee flows"
 This collapse would "inevitably lead to new refugee flows to Europe", writes Posch in the "IFK Monitor" of the Institute for Peacekeeping and Conflict Management at the Vienna Defense Academy. The refugees would then be joined by "experienced fighters and cadres", he points out.

Situation of the Kurds has deteriorated significantly
The situation of the Kurds deteriorated significantly when the Islamist "Liberation Movement for Syria" (HTS) under the leadership of Al-Sharaa took power in Syria at the end of 2024, explained Posch. The new government maintains close relations with Ankara and rejects any form of Kurdish self-administration.

Heavy fighting is currently underway
There is also currently fighting in Syria. According to activists, at least 48 people have been killed in heavy fighting between troops of the Syrian transitional government and armed supporters of ousted ruler Bashar al-Assad. The head of the security authorities in Latakia province - located in western Syria - reported fierce fighting between government troops and fighters loyal to Assad on Thursday.