"Vladimir Putin is currently not interested in a ceasefire," says the head of the Defense Policy and International Relations Directorate at the Ministry of Defense. Regarding Russia's hybrid warfare, he noted: "We are already in a state of war."

There are constant threats of Russian nuclear attacks on European cities on Russian state television in order to increase pressure on the population in Europe to speak out against arms deliveries to Ukraine. In addition, Russia is deliberately fueling migration to Europe by bringing migrants to the borders of Belarus and Poland, Vartok continued during a discussion at the Austria Institute for Security Policy on Monday evening in Vienna. Putin is also not concerned about the high casualties, rather deserting Russian soldiers are deliberately killed.

Targeted attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure are not only intended to break the Ukrainians' will to defend themselves, but also to make towns and villages uninhabitable. This could in turn trigger further waves of refugees heading towards Western Europe. "Putin has strategic patience and considers us Europeans to be weak," states the army brigadier. Although the Ukrainians are tired of war, they know "that they have no option but to fight."

"Western states kicked out on edge"
Western influence would be reduced wherever possible. Putin succeeded in doing this in the Sahel region, for example, where all Western states were "kicked out of the region". In addition, the Russian president has a strong interest in undermining Western cohesion, which is best achieved by Russia-friendly governments in EU states due to the principle of unanimity on foreign policy issues in the European Union. 

According to Vartok, peace is hardly foreseeable at the moment, as Putin is currently not interested in a ceasefire. Negotiations without Ukraine would also result in a dictated peace, which Putin would only use as a breathing space to attack again in six months' time. In view of these gloomy forecasts, Vartok considers the defense package of 800 billion euros agreed by the EU to be far too small. 

Former OSCE special envoy: "No guarantee"
The former OSCE special envoy, Martin Sajdik, emphasized that there is no guarantee that Russia will no longer attack the neighbouring country, even if there is a peace agreement. In this respect, Ukraine was already a "burnt child". In the Budapest Memorandum of 1994, Ukraine was assured that its borders would remain inviolable if it handed over all its nuclear weapons to Russia in return. Well, the nuclear weapons are gone, but the Russians are here.

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