What is the cost of a ceasefire?

Trump makes the world’s most important phone call today

According to US President Donald Trump, the chances of a "deal" with Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin are very good.

(Bild: Krone KREATIV/Kristina Kormilitsyna/Sputnik/Kremlin Pool Photo via AP, APA/AFP/Mandel NGAN)

"Maybe there will be a ceasefire, maybe there won't", US President Donald Trump orated in his usual manner on the flight from his home in Florida to Washington and announced that he wanted to speak to Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin today, Tuesday. It is the most important phone call in the world.

According to the US President, the chances of a "deal" are very good. A "great deal of work" had already been done, said Trump. Much had been discussed with both sides - the Russians and the Ukrainians.

Talks about "land and power plants"
Talks are already underway about "the division of certain assets" between the two sides, Trump explained. Talks also focused on "land" and "power plants" - i.e. probably the Donbass and Crimea, which Russia annexed, as well as the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant, which Moscow would probably like to keep.

In fact, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov, who had recently met in Saudi Arabia, spoke at length on the phone on Saturday. They were probably preparing for the announced phone call between their two leaders. Usually, talks between heads of state are planned in such a way that there are also results to present afterwards. And so Trump also announced that there might be "news" to report on Tuesday. 

May have prepared their leaders' phone call: Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his US counterpart Marco Rubio

(Bild: APA/AFP/Pool/Johan Ordonez, Alexander Nemenov)

Rubio emphasized to US broadcaster CBS on Monday that the first step was to stop the fighting. "It's hard to negotiate a lasting end to a war as long as you're shooting at each other," Rubio said. Only then could all parties come to the table. It will take "concessions from both sides".

EU Foreign Affairs Council on military aid
Meanwhile, the fighting continued with undiminished ferocity. And the Europeans tried to agree on a new billion-euro aid package for Ukraine - on a voluntary basis so that Hungary could not veto it. At the EU Foreign Affairs Council on Monday, EU High Representative Kaja Kallas proposed providing the country, which has been attacked by Russia, with aid worth between 20 and 40 billion euros this year. Member states should make contributions in line with their economic strength.

Ukrainian soldiers during training by EU instructors

(Bild: APA/AFP/Wojtek Radwanski)

Meinl-Reisinger: "The ball is now in Russia's court"
Foreign Minister Beate Meinl-Reisinger, who was attending her first EU Council of Ministers, said that she considered it important to strengthen Ukraine's negotiating position. The most important guarantee for its security was "the good equipment of the Ukrainian army", she said in response to Kallas' proposal. She also welcomed the breakthrough achieved by Ukraine and the US in Jeddah in the negotiations for a ceasefire. Ukraine is ready for peace: "Ukraine wants peace, the ball is now in Russia's court." 

Baerbock to Trump: "No unagreed concessions"
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock appealed to Trump not to make any unagreed concessions at the expense of Ukraine in his planned talks with Putin. It is now urgent that Europeans and Americans act together and as one, she said. The territorial integrity of Ukraine must be the basis of all negotiations and no options should be taken off the table in advance. 

Poland's Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski was keen to take a photo of EU High Representative Kaja Kallas and the two Foreign Ministers Beate Meinl-Reisinger and Annalena Baerbock on the sidelines of the EU Council of Ministers.

(Bild: APA/AFP/NICOLAS TUCAT)

How ready is the Russian side?
The Kremlin repeatedly emphasizes its readiness for dialogue and a diplomatic solution to the conflict - but on Putin's terms. As Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said, Russia wants an ironclad guarantee that Ukraine will never become a NATO member. Moscow's basic demands also include far-reaching rights for the remaining Russian-speaking part of the Ukrainian population.

It is also clear that from Russia's point of view, Ukraine would have to give up at least the previously occupied parts of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia regions and the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea, which was annexed in 2014. However, according to the Russian newspaper "Nezavisimaya Gazeta", a compromise could be that Putin backs down from his demand that Ukraine gives up these territories completely. 

Selensky wants NATO and EU membership as security
Officially, Ukraine will hardly give up its territories occupied by Russia. However, demands for the Russians to withdraw from all occupied territories have practically fallen silent. President Selensky speaks less of a victory than of a just and lasting peace and security guarantees for the country.

The crucial question is how Ukraine can be protected from new Russian attacks once the fighting has ended. "Ukraine cannot live under the threat of another attack," said Selenskyj. For security, he wants a combination of NATO and EU membership, the deployment of European troops and a strong army of its own.